In an NFC West show down this Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals look to avenge last season’s 58-0 pasting at the hands of a Seahawks team that has already wrapped up home field throughout the playoffs.
This game comes with a large spread attached to it, and it’s a bit of a mystery given the differences in motivation both teams currently have in play. Arizona is scratching and clawing for any possible way to get into the playoffs, and 11-5 might not be good enough depending on what Carolina does.
This is a must win for Arizona, and it comes with a chance of redemption attached to it. For Seattle, you have to wonder what is going on in Pete Carroll’s head. Carroll wants to stay hot and play his studs given that they could very well sit next week before going into a bye. But, he is still without the services of Percy Harvin and is down a man in his secondary given Brandon Browner’s suspension, making his strategy an even more interesting one.
The tape from the first meeting between these two is telling, and shows a lot about how this game could go. Arizona had opportunities to move the football and was very much in the game into the second half thanks to a huge forced fumble shortly before halftime.
Carson Palmer and his wide-outs will see a lot they like, especially with Browner out of the lineup. They have the ability to spread Seattle out and pick them apart thanks to a passing game that includes five quality weapons.
But, their offensive line is simply not built to play a game like that against this opponent without being balanced. Bruce Arians knew that heading into the first match-up, and it resulted in his increased usage of first down run calls more so than he had ever incorporated in the first half of any other match-up all year.
Going up to Seattle, Arians has to know that, regardless of who is lined up along this defensive front, it’s unlikely Arizona will have success running the ball. Two critical Palmer interceptions sealed the deal for the Seahawks, and their success in the red zone against Arizona’s defense made the lead too large to crawl back from. Seattle, while exhibiting some questionable play calling at times this season, clicked on all cylinders in that one prior to Sidney Rice leaving with an injury in the second half.
One could argue that Seattle has been less explosive without Rice, although it hasn’t really shown itself in terms of wins and losses. That Arizona game was a fine example of how moving Russell Wilson around in the pocket can keep even the best defensive lines guessing.
I’d expect Seattle to do the same here, and run the football a bit more. Play action was a good calling card for them in the first game, and the Arizona secondary concerns have only multiplied since that game.
Losing Tyrann Mathieu is a massive development. Make no mistake, his speed in coverage and versatility in playing up to three different positions for this defense was a huge help to a corner group with limited depth behind Patrick Peterson. Mathieu’s absence was on display during the second half last week, when Ryan fitzpatrick effectively torched this secondary to the tune of a 400 yard outing while forcing what had been a runaway into an overtime thriller.
Arizona is getting 10/10.5 right now, and this number had been as high as 11 earlier on. While I do believe they are the right side to this game, it’s also simply a poor matchup for them. We have seen teams with motivation questions stumble, but we have also seen it enable them to play looser, and I actually expect that from Seattle here.
At this point in time, betting quality numbers is important, but it doesn’t always mean the game will play out in your favor. Arizona expended a ton of energy last week in a wild game down in Tennessee. They now hit the road again to play a superior opponent that has been as consistent as any in the league. I like the Cardinals here, but could easily see this game getting away from them if Palmer reverts back to the turnover prone Q.B. he was the first six weeks of this season. I’d look to play Arizona at 10.5 or higher, but would lay off the game at any other number.
