One of the hottest teams in all of the NFL over the last month or so has been the upstart Arizona Cardinals under their new Head Coach Bruce Arians. At 8-5, the Cardinals have put themselves in position to grab a playoff spot. They are 5-1 SU and ATS over their last 6 games. Nevertheless, their game this weekend in Nashville presents a lot of pitfalls that could spell doom for bettors looking to lay the points.
First of all, the scheduling does them no favors. After playing the Rams last week, the Cards have the Seahawks and 49ers to wrap the season up after their tilt with the Titans on Sunday; clearly a look-ahead spot considering how tight things are getting the NFC Wildcard picture. The need to win this game adds to the pressure for the Cardinals to keep pace with the 49ers for the final playoff spot. One of my favorite spots in the pros to examine is a divisional home favorite that wins and covers and now goes on the road as chalk in a non-conference game. This situation is only strengthened when the non-conference game is sandwiched between two divisional games. That is exactly what we have occurring this weekend.
Leaving the desert has not been kind to the Cardinals, as they are only 2-4 on the road this season. The Titans are coming off of three straight road games and have not won or covered at home since the Jets game in late September. Pride plays a role in the NFL (see the Jaguars and Buccaneers) and I expect the Titans to give their best effort in this one attempting to get a win at home.
Finally, there are some indicators that stand out in this one: the Cardinals are 0-5 ATS as road favorites in games off a SU and ATS win and under Munchak, the Titans are 5-0 SU and ATS in non-divisional games off back to back losses. At 5-8, the Titans could finish .500 by winning out in three very winnable games.
For me, this is a Sell High situation with the Cardinals and a value/situational play with the Titans. Grab the field goal while you can and maybe some ML too!
Good luck and keep cashing!
