Number one rolls into Ann Arbor for a date with last season’s national runner up. Michigan has three losses thus far this season, two of which came on the road in difficult environments against quality teams. This match-up offers them a home date and also serves as Sean Miller’s second true road test of the year, but the first with significant travel.

Michigan is still trying to find themselves to some extent. Mitch McGary does not appear 100% healthy, and it has been difficult for Nik Stauskas to carry this offense by himself. Their loss at Duke back on December third was largely a result of an ineffective offense hampered by lengthy perimeter dribbling.

This offense was fine when it had Trey Burke leading it. Burke was fearless with the ball and could take over possessions that often appeared stagnant. John Beilein’s offense is contingent upon moving without the ball out front, but it also requires consistent post play to enable crisp cutting from perimeter angles. McGary has struggled to provide that when up against quality defense and that is likely a byproduct of his ailing back issues.

This game, despite coming at home, will not offer much of a letdown in regards to the opposition. Arizona comes in at number five in overall defensive efficiency, ranks eleventh in two point field goal percentage on defense and features four bodies at 6’7 or taller who can all defend in the post and block shots from the weak side.

What Michigan has to counter with is a potentially explosive offense that features a strong group of guards who can shoot the ball from everywhere. We saw what Drexel was capable of doing for a half in NYC over Thanksgiving against Arizona. Had they been better equipped with a deeper rotation, they may have pulled the upset there. It is for that reason that Michigan has more than a realistic chance to take this game, and the fact that they enter as a small favorite is in no way a surprise.

Derrick Walton is a major factor in this game. He is a 6’1 guard who is excellent with the ball in his hands, but he has struggled at times in terms of effectively executing this offense. He is matched up with T.J. McConnell in this one, and he will need to outplay the junior transfer in order to win.

McConnell has been dynamic at times if you just look at his box scores, but if defenses prove capable of containing him and cutting down his passing lanes, it really creates issues for this offense in total. Drexel and San Diego State had experienced guards who were able to stay in front of him and force low scoring affairs, forcing ‘Zona to play outside of their comfort zone.

But Michigan’s best defense could revert back to being its offense again. Nick Johnson is the true catalyst for the Arizona offense. If he is laboring defensively in trying to follow Stauskas all over the floor, it could cut down on what he can do on offense. Stauskas is a bigger body who, while not as athletic, should be able to post Johnson up from time to time and force his hand a bit.

Forcing Johnson into a difficult defensive day and perhaps even getting him in foul trouble could be the difference. While Arizona has more athletes, Michigan can counter with Jon Horford and Jordan Morgan. Both players are experienced and good on the defensive boards.

If they can protect their end and get quality defense out of their guards, they can force Arizona into a lower scoring game that is more contingent on half court effectiveness, and that’s really the key to their winning this game. I had this one at Michigan -1.5 and it appears to be ready to post at 2.

This could be a wild one that goes right down to the wire. I’ll wait to see where it settles, but have to give a slight lean to the Wolverines. I’m just not certain that they have their issues in order enough to pull the trigger here. number one seems to be going down often in college hoops this year, and I think the trend continues again this Saturday.