The Big Ten Championship will kick off Saturday night frought with intrigue and importance. There is always a tendency to see a mismatch in games such as these. Just look at Duke/FSU in the ACC championship.
But Michigan State is no slouch. They have a veteran head coach and a downright physical defense. Their lone loss was a nail biter in South Bend that served as one of Connor Cook’s first career road starts.
Cook has been the x-factor since taking over for Andrew Maxwell. Too young to come in and make it happen a year ago for Mark D’Antonio, Cook has been calm and composed since stepping into his new role. He has avoided error prone games and has proven quite athletic when out of the pocket.
Maxwell forced the ball into tight windows and often times lacked the touched to deliver a safe ball. Many of his throws ended up deflected in a manner that enabled the defense opportunities at a turnover.
Cook’s 17-4 TD-INT ratio will be another big factor in this game. Ohio State has a dynamic offense that should challenge the Spartans defense, and this will be the toughest test to date on Sparty’s schedule.
The Buckeyes enter this spot as the team perceived to be the least deserving of having a chance at a national title. Should they win, they would likely play Florida State in the national championship. It would also mark their 25th consecutive win under coach Urban Meyer, a very legitimate accomplishment regardless of conference.
Ohio State defiantly issued a middle finger both literally and figuratively last week at Michigan. No, they didn’t cover the 16/17 point spread, but they physically refused to be be beaten by a motivated Michigan team on the road. They stymied the Wolverine ground game enough and forced Devon Gardner to beat them at the end, which almost happened.
While Cook is a better quarterback than Gardner in most people’s minds, he is also less accustomed to playing in games which require him to put up large scoring totals. He would prefer to play a slower game that is more drawn out and allow his defense to control the line of scrimmage and the clock.
That brings our attention to the big names and the matchup that should well determine the outcome of this one. Braxton Miller has been spectacular in navigating the Buckeyes offense this far. The concerns over the quality of their schedule and opponents in general is legitimate. They nearly went down at Northwestern and had games that went down to the wire at home against both Iowa and Wisconsin.
None of that matters here, however. Perception would dictate that Ohio State is the team with more pressure. But I’m not sure that is the case. The Buckeyes had little trouble in coming from behind against Michigan and they played loose when down. They know what people in the national media are saying about them, and the motivation level they surely figure to bring here will be hunter as opposed to hunted.
But I’m not sure it’s enough to justify the spread established for this one. Offensive metrics and the number two next to the Buckeyes abbreviation clearly dictate that they require a number of 5.5/6 for this game. I had this spread at 3 and don’t think the Spartans should be getting something north of that just based on the OSU defensive limitations to go along with an offense that could be made one dimensional here.
Regardless of how you feel about the Buckeyes, a certain level of respect should be handed to MSU. They are red hot with the QB they currently have under center, have a freakish amount of athleticism and talent within their defense and also boast an offense with enough versatility to keep Miller and his cohorts off the field.
That’s the key here: moving the chains. Cook’s mobility is extremely useful in the intermediate passing game. Four receivers on this roster average more than 11 yards per catch and Bennie Fowler is a good playmaker. Bradley Roby should be able to limit him, but this is not a one dimensional attack in the mold of many previous Buckeye opponents.
Their entire secondary will be challenged and their young defensive line could well become a weakness if they get behind in a game that forces them to slow the MSU rushing attack behind 6’0, 200 pound junior Jeremy Langford. Michigan State doesn’t have an explosive ground game, but that’s what makes it even more danger: clock manipulation.
The Buckeyes have come into their games with sluggish starts regularly. Should that happen here, the possession of 5.5 or 6 points will beyond beneficial. OSU has a great offense, but it isn’t Auburn-esque in that there is little variation for what they want to do. Miller is their trigger man, but he wants to be a runner more than he throws.
MSU has the bodies along their massive defensive front to neutralize Miller in that regard. Even if they don’t apply extreme pressure, they should be able to contain him in the pocket and force him to throw it in situations where he would prefer not to. Their secondary is very active and capable of forcing turnovers, something the Buckeyes did not really have to overcome until Carlos Hyde fumbled late in the Michigan victory.
OSU may very well win this game, but the value on the dog is there. We have seen dogs be very beneficial in recent weeks as many top teams have been upset. I like the Spartans to win the game here and add more fuel to the fire as to who ends up meeting the Seminoles in the national title game.
Michigan State +6 and ML
