In a battle of two teams who have had marginal success this season, the Bills head to the Sunshine state for a battle with Greg Schiano’s Bucs. Tampa was in a bad place for a while, but got rolling the last several weeks prior to a 27-6 beat down at the hands of Carolina.

The Carolina loss could have been yet another impressive performance for Tampa, as they were driving into Carolina territory down 10-6 late in the first half. A fumble by Mike Glennon altered the course of that game, and an additional interception to start the second half more or less ended it.

Glennon was excellent at taking care of the football through his first few starts. He has proven very adept at picking apart weak secondary units such as Atlanta and Detroit, and his ability to generate quality yardage on first down has opened up the run game for his backs.

This matchup will be against an interesting Bills defense. Buffalo has quality pieces in its secondary and a pass rush led by Mario Williams. They rank fifth overall in the league in total defense, while Tampa comes in at tenth.

Tampa has been very good at taking care of the ball this season, as their +10 turnover differential is third best in the NFC. Turnover differential typically finds a way to trend back toward normal regression. If last week’s game is an indication, this could be a good spot for Buffalo.

Not only do the Bills have a group in their secondary led by Jairus Byrd that is fully capable of wreaking havoc, but they also have a defensive line unit that should be able to hold up well at the point of attack in this game.

On the flip side, Buffalo finally got its offense going once again against Atlanta. The Falcons have a downright bad defense, but Buffalo’s 6.4 YPP were still impressive up in Toronto. C.J. Spiller is finally healthy and E.J. Manuel is starting to get back to the way he played earlier in the year.

Manuel struggled in his return to the lineup against Pittsburgh in week 10. Since that game, he has posted two quality performances against the Jets and Falcons, and he could have another big day here. Darrelle Revis is questionable for this game with a shoulder injury, and his limitations could spell good news for Stevie Johnson.

Many books list this number at 2.5 with added juice on the home team. It’s difficult to bet a game involving two teams whose playoff chances are likely done. But I think there is some value on Buffalo here.

The Bills were impressive early in the year in a close loss to New England and a win over Carolina. They seem to be getting back on track and will undoubtedly look to finish the season strong under first year coach Doug Marrone.

For Tampa, it seems as if the league is starting to figure out Glennon. Turnover regression is likely imminent here, especially given Tampa’s lack of a bona fide run game to support him.

Add in the fact that this Buffalo team can hit the Bucs with a more versatile run game than what they have seen in previous weeks, and I like the Bill’s chances here if you can get the full field goal. Buffalo is a team that could very well finish the season on a positive note, and I think it starts with this weekend’s visit to Florida.

BUF +3