Texas @ Temple
The Owls got a much needed win at home against St. Joseph’s on Wednesday night and now have to turn around and take on a much improved Longhorn team. Texas has a very mediocre offense, but has built themselves on defense and rebounding and it seems to be working quite well.
While Rick Barnes’ club does not own any overly impressive wins this year to date, they seem to be back on track following a disastrous 2012-2013 campaign. They are a top 50 team in defensive efficiency and rank in the top 25 in both rebounding and blocked shots thus far in this young season, and they should present a very difficult challenge for Temple.
Texas has four players averaging 6 RPG or better and has four bodies at 6’8 or bigger who all average at least 15 MPG. That is incredibly important in this game because Temple is a club that struggles on the glass and lacks interior depth.
The one benefit regarding timing of this game is that Temple should be fully aware of what they are in for. Clemson, Towson and UAB are all groups that grade out comparably to where the Owls are currently.
Playing at home and being more or less used to their opponents’ style will come in handy here. Additionally, both teams play at a very similar pace, averaging about 71 possessions per outing.
I have the Owls as the smallest of favorites (-1), which is in line with the current number. Neither group will be able to pull away in this game. Both clubs could desperately use a tournament building win despite it being early in the season, and this should be a dogfight to say the least. Temple is at home, but Texas has a sizable depth advantage.
UCLA @ Missouri
When these two met last year, the game was a thriller that ended in overtime with a 97-94 UCLA victory thanks in large part to a sensational late game performance by Shabazz Muhammad. Both teams lose key players from 2012 and have yet to really be challenged en route to undefeated starts.
Missouri let up a bit in their 70-61 win over WVU on Thursday. They held a massive 18 point lead in the second half of that game prior to a brief Mountaineer comeback that fell short. Tulsa transfer Jordan Clarkson spearheads the Tiger attack and he is joined by two extremely talented guards in Jabari Brown and Earnest Ross.
While Missouri appears to be quite limited inside following the graduation of Laurence Bowers, that might not be a problem here. Bruins center Tony Parker has yet to prove he can play major minutes, and David and Travis Wear do more in terms of mid-range production than anything they contribute on the glass.
UCLA does have some legitimate match-up advantages, however. They have a pair of guards in Jordan Adams and Norman Powell who are very versatile and have the size to deal with the aforementioned Ross and Brown.
While they lack a proven point guard in the sense of a prototype player at that position, Kyle Anderson does a lot of creating from the point forward position. UCLA is the better team by a small margin. I have them as three point dogs here while Vegas has thrown out a spread of Mizzou -1.5. I lean Missouri here but haven’t seen enough out of their bigs to justify backing them.
BYU @ UMass
The Cougars have cooled off a bit following a start to the year which had many people talking. They haven’t been as great defensively as they needed to in losses to Iowa State and Wichita State, and have also been lacking a bit on the offensive boards.
Traveling across the country for a 1:30 EST start time with the Minutemen of Massachusetts will be difficult to say the least, but these two are both in the top ten in terms of pace, and I expect the Cougars to be comfortable playing in this environment.
UMass has looked a bit better than BYU on the defensive end, and containing the dribble penetration of Chaz Williams will be paramount to success here on the road for Dave Rose’s club.
Derrick Gordon is a 6’3 guard with decent length and athleticism and should provide at least somewhat of a challenge for BYU all-American candidate Tyler Haws. Haws pairs with Matt Carlino in the back court to provide BYU with a dynamic duo.
I have the Minutemen as 4 point favorites here while Vegas is sporting 3. These two are very similar, but the travel and start time benefit the home team. While guards will surely dictate much of the way this game unfolds, watch the matchup down low. Cady LaLanne will probably be the biggest challenge that BYU freshman Eric Mika has seen yet this year, and the team that does a better job on the glass should have an advantage.
Clemson @ Arkansas
Much like with the BYU/UMass game, these teams are similar in certain ways as well, save for pace.
Clemson is one of the slowest teams in America and that is not good considering they are playing the sixteenth fastest team in the country on the road in this spot. Clemson struggled in their match-up with UMass back on November 24, which came at a neutral site. This marks their first true road game of the year as well.
Many are high on Clemson given that they grade out as one of the best defensive teams in America. They are fourth in overall efficiency, second in defensive three point percentage and sixth against the two. Some of that has to do with a relatively bogus schedule outside of Temple, Davidson and UMass, but you cannot deny their athleticism and communication as a unit on the defensive end.
Both clubs are quite deep and built similarly in terms of having long and rangy defenders built to play in both the open court and half court. But this is a good spot for Arkansas simply because they can play Clemson’s style better than Clemson can play theirs to some extent.
Arkansas has 3-4 guys they can throw at Clemson stud K.J. McDaniels. McDaniels is a very good player who could well be on his way to first team all-ACC. But that won’t matter here as he is really their only offensive threat in a game that features a Razorback team with a more well rounded offensive lineup.
I have this game at Arkansas -4.5/5, which is in line with Vegas. Clemson’s impressive early start comes to an end here. I have some concerns over Arkansas’ overall ability to cover a number like this, but due to their ability to play any real style Clemson wants to, they are worth the risk.
Arkansas -4 (B 1/2)
Marquette @ Wisconsin
More than a few “sharps,” were on Virginia when the Badgers travelled to Charlottesville earlier this week. That game proved to many that, while Wisconsin is more offensive minded than in recent years, they can still grind out games, which will be a huge benefit to them here.
Marquette has been a brutal offensive group this season, ranking 270 in effective field goal percentage. I expect them to struggle to score in this game as well, and being on the road won’t help.
What should keep the Golden Eagles in this one is their defensive prowess. Jamil Wilson is a nice counterpunch for the extremely talented Sam Dekker. The real challenge to Marquette both defensively and on the glass will be the ability of their bigs to step out and cover Frank Kaminsky, the 6’11 Badger center who has been a complete revelation this season.
This number should be something like 7.5 or 8 as I just do not see Marquette keeping pace on the road. I’d back the Badgers at a diluted number but given their recent success I’m not expecting to find one.
Kansas @ Colorado
This is a huge revenge game for the Buffaloes after they got blasted by the Jayhawks a year ago. Kansas’ rotation is almost entirely different while Colorado really only loses two key pieces from their 2012 unit.
This might be the best game of the day given how the two teams stack up. While Kansas has more raw talent, the Buffaloes have experience and size to counter.
Interestingly enough, the Jayhawks will have had an entire week heading into this one, while Colorado is coming off a hard fought, last minute road victory against rival CSU. It is no way a taxing situation for the Buffaloes though, as there schedule was relatively light and full of home dates prior to this stretch.
The real key here may end up how Kansas is able to deal with Spencer Dinwiddie. The talented, 6’6 guard was dealing with an ankle injury when Tad Boyle’s team entered Allen Fieldhouse a year ago and it showed. They struggled with the pressure and athletic defense of Bill Self’s team.
Kansas is by no means up and down and their defense is still developing. Still, Colorado lacks back court depth and that is something to keep in mind. The front courts in many ways cancel themselves out, although Kansas probably has a slight edge there.
It’s almost funny to say this, but keep an eye on Andrew Wiggins here. He has had a few quiet games recently and it’s imperative that he gets going here. Colorado should use a sizable amount of zone in this game, forcing the Jayhawks to prove they can shoot it effectively and consistently.
Still, Xavier Johnson is a really talented, 6’7 forward who is probably good enough to match up with Wiggins. I have the game as a PK and don’t see much value in taking it. It is definitely a game you do not want to miss. You can DVR the SEC title game and start it on delay after this potential classic goes final.
Villanova @ St. Joe’s
Last year the overhyped Hawks were 4 point favorites on the road against what ended up being a good Villanova group. The Wildcats will likely assume the role of the Hawks this season, entering this one as a smaller favorite in what is a hotly contested rivalry match-up with rich history.
The biggest issue here is depth. Villanova has it virtually everywhere save for center and the Hawks have little of it. Halil Kanacevic is a versatile big man who can stretch the floor and force Daniel Ochefu to play on the perimeter if ‘Nova opts to go man, but I would expect to see a lot of zone out of both groups.
Langston Galloway can really shoot it, but at 6’2 he’ll have a difficult time getting shots off against the long ‘Nova guards. Galloway did go for 22 on 6-10 shooting from deep at the Pavilion a season ago, however. You had better believe Jay Wright will make sure his team is aware of Galloway’s presence at all times.
If SJU wants any shot here, they have to improve upon their current defensive issues, which have left them ranked in the 127 spot in terms of defensive efficiency. I have this number set at Villanova -4.5 and tend to believe the Wildcats win this one by something like 7 or 8, but taking the road team in a rivalry such as this doesn’t pose enough value.
Watch Ronald Roberts here. Should Wright opt to go 2-3 and extend to mid court pressure (something he loves to do), it will make Robert’s ability to get the ball consistently a massive issue. Washington State used numerous tactics in dealing with him on Sunday and ended up mostly unsuccessful. Villanova is better equipped and more well-coached defensively.
