I’ve read some extensive ESPN work indicating that this game is enormous for Georgetown and that their experienced roster has the ability to head down to Allen Fieldhouse and get a win.
Georgetown hasn’t beaten anyone special, but they are on a six game winning streak which includes wins over Kansas State and a VCU team that continues to be a mystery for most to evaluate. They have two very good and experienced guards who can hit from the outside and handle against pressure.
Psychologically speaking, they do have a lot to prove, and they are probably in good position to do something with this game. Kansas is revered as a top flight unit regardless of record or rank, but they are still working through some challenges at this point.
They have a bit of uncertainty at the guard spots, although Frank Mason’s demotion to the bench in the New Mexico game was met with an impressive performance from Naadir Tharpe. While Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid have struggled to find consistency, it’s painfully obvious that this team is at its best when elevating their defensive effort.
That is why I tend to like them here. Georgetown’s offense doesn’t grade out all that poorly, but they only have three scorers who have proven capable of consistently providing offense. Markel Starks and D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera could very well win the back court matchup, but will that be enough?
Josh Smith is the third piece of their scoring trio, but he is ill equipped to play meaningful minutes here. He averages a shade under 21 per game, and simply doesn’t have the conditioning required to be a factor over the course of 40 here against a deep and freakishly athletic front court centered around the aforementioned Embiid.
Georgetown has other players whom can neutralize the scoring of Perry Ellis in Mikael Hopkins and Nate Lubick, but they are still vulnerable in other match-ups.
Jabril Trawick could get matched up with Wiggins, but I’d expect to see a decent amount of zone from them in this spot. Kansas looked weak in attacking the zone of Florida, but I’m not sure that Georgetown’s zone will have the overall activity level and versatility that Florida sports.
Using zone will allow Smith to play more minutes, but it will also leave G’Town a bit weaker on the glass. Overall, I expect their defense to work to some extent, but my bigger concern is how they will put up enough points to hang around.
If their offense is going to be predicated upon the perimeter shooting efforts of the two guards previously mentioned, it could be a long day. Statistically speaking, only 31% of their overall field goals come from behind the arc. Smith-Rivera and Starks average, collectively, only 10.7 attempts per game. Those percentages are average for most of the NCAA and reflect the balance they have on offense.
But if they can’t find other forms of scoring in this sort of game, they will have to chuck. Kansas prefers man to man and that won’t be a problem here. Wayne Selden is a nice matchup for Smith-Rivera while both Tharpe and Mason have the quickness to stay in front of Starks. Should Smith have trouble getting things going or providing big minutes into the second half, it’s difficult to see another Georgetown body providing a lift.
Georgetown is not deep at all, and that could force them to rely on outside scoring, a tendency which could also result in long rebounds that only help to bolster the transition game for the Jayhawks. Kansas ranks 73 in adjusted pace while the Hoyas, while not as slow as in recent seasons, come in at 175.
G’Town is 202 in offensive turnover efficiency, and that does not bode well here. I think they will protect the ball better than they have thus far this year, but there are numerous factors here which could easily allow for this game to be up and down, and that benefits Kansas to a far greater degree.
I have the Jayhawks as 12 point favorites here and believe the number is eight is awfully light. Yes, G’Town can play defense and likely keep the scoring down, but they have far too many additional concerns to be competitive here over the course of 40 minutes. It may result in Kansas being a better option with a live play or second half wager, but I’ll still take them to cover the given number right now.
I look for a total of 133-136 for this game, and even if it plays out to the tune of something like 125 or 120, I see a 70-55 Jayhawks win far more likely than other scenarios. I’ll lay considerable chalk in this circumstance as the Jayhawks look to be a team that should start making noise.
Kansas -8
