The AFC playoffs’ divisional round will get underway Saturday night in what could be one of the weekend’s best games. Indy travels to New England to take on a Patriots team that was good enough to earn the conference’s second seed despite dealing with a myriad of injuries and distractions during a tumultuous 2013 season.
The Pats had big offensive games down the stretch against Baltimore and Buffalo, but they also disappeared to some extent in games with Cleveland and Miami. Indianapolis’ defense leaves a lot to be desired as displayed in their rough outing a week ago. Tom Brady will have options in this game, but their ability to be consistent in the red zone is a major concern.
The Colts’ defense came in at number 16 in the NFL in total according to FootballOutsiders. They were 13 against the pass and 22 against the run. That is reasonably good news here as the Pats depend far more on the pass in order to generate success, although they do have a better ground attack than some give them credit for.
Bill Belichick has a stable of backs to work with, and while Stevan Ridley has had fumbling issues this year, the Pats still have two backs whom have carried it 150 times or more this season. Two of their lesser used RB’s, Brandon Bolden and Shane Vereen, have also totaled a combined 167 touches this year.
Belichick is a master game strategist, however, and he will undoubtedly look to run the ball here given the Colts difficulties in this area. The run game will be a tool used to enhance play action, and Brady will have plenty of chances to go vertical against two safeties who are both better built to play the run.
But this game is a meeting of not one, but two, great quarterbacks. In order to win it, Brady will have to put big points on the scoreboard given his own defense and their lengthy number of injuries. Their offensive line has deal with a lot in recent weeks, and Aaron Dobson will likely miss this game with a foot injury. This offense is good because of Brady, but good might not be enough in this one.
Indianapolis enters this game with the best young quarterback in the league, and Andrew Luck’s performance last weekend against Kansas City was magical to say the least. Fans everywhere debated the likelihood of a comeback during halftime, with the understanding that Luck would probably be unwilling to bow out of the 2014 NFL playoffs without a real fight.
The skirmish which ensued resulted in a wild finish which included a fumble recovery and subsequent touchdown run of five yards to pull within three early on in the fourth quarter. Luck threw for over 400 yards and
averaged 6.4 YPC during seven important runs.
He hit six different receivers during the game, with the prominent contributor being T.Y. Hilton. The shifty and sure handed second year man has shown a serious rapport with Luck dating back to last season, and his ability to get behind safeties can be devastating.
The Colts win games with Luck’s arm, but they have another feature which should bode well for them in this game. Chuck Pagano has demanded his team be more physical and balanced this year. They are not likely to gash the Pats for big yards, but they should be able to wear down a team that also struggled against the ground game this year following injuries to Vince Wilfork and Tom Kelly.
New England finished the regular season as the 21st ranked defense overall and 27th against the run. They were better against the pass and have a much improved secondary thanks to the efforts of Aqib Talib and others.
This game will dubbed a battle between an old legend and a young gun at the most important of positions, but this game for me comes down more so to what Indy can do at the line of scrimmage. Should they be able to lull the Pats into a slower and more low scoring game through clock management and red zone efficiency on defense, they’ll have more than a good chance to steal one here.
Indy is by no means impressive on the ground, but their attitude is designed to wear you down and beat you up more than to actually move the chains and score. Many fans and readers will laugh that strategy and the Colts’ run game off heading into Saturday. But there is little question that this offense seems just fine in total this year. Pagano wants to play with that sort of intent, and that is good news for Colts fans.
We have seen stud QB’s like Brady and Manning falter in the playoffs in recent years, especially when offered a first round bye and coming into the divisional round as big favorites. But, more importantly, the Colts have the type of formula that can be successful here thanks to Robert Mathis.
Mathis is only one player, but he has the quickness and technique to give any tackle fits, as evidenced by his 19.5 sacks this season. Mathis can control the pace of a game and force Brady into difficult decisions. for as good as he is, we have seen him rattled when dealing with a heavy rush, and the Colts will do everything in their power to make that the case on Saturday night.
I’m not sure Indy has enough to win this game outright. Should Brady need a score late, there is little question that he has the ability to dissect this defense in a big spot. Still, this number should be more in line with 6/6.5. The fact that the number is hanging in the 7/7.5 range indicates some legitimate value on the road dog as far as I’m concerned.
More importantly than perhaps anything, though, could be the momentum the Colts carry in here. They are playing with house money after their thrilling come from behind win a few days ago. They got Andrew Luck his first playoff win, and he could be in for a “Lebron-like” ascent through these playoffs now that he has the proverbial money off his back.
Tom Brady is one of the all-time greats the gam e has ever seen, and so it’s a bit scary fading him here. But the Colts as a dog has great potential, and they have a guy at the key position who can match Brady in terms of effectiveness. They also have pass rush and a mentality that will serve them well given the nature of their opponent.
Colts +7.5 and ML (+275)
