Ryan Tannehill will get his second crack in three weeks to take his club into treacherous playing conditions when the Dolphins venture into Buffalo this week. These two clubs faced off down in Miami a month and a half ago in what turned out to be a 23-21 Bills victory thanks to a gutsy performance from Thaddeus Lewis.
Miami entered that game as an inflated favorite, and they will be in a similar spot once again here. Their recent three game win streak has inspired a lot of gambling support as they are currently getting about 75% of all spread bets for this one, and I’m just not entirely sure it is warranted.
In terms of motivation, Buffalo has nothing to play for while Miami’s season is basically on the line once again this week. The Dolphins are making a playoff push in the wake of absolute chaos earlier this season, and that should be commended.
But I’m just not entirely buying into this team. Their victory over New England was impressive, but also a byproduct of massive injuries to the Pats as well as a pathetic red zone effort from Tom Brady’s offense.
Miami seems to trend very well when in the role of underdog, which they have been placed into almost exclusively over the last month. This game will see them enter as a road favorite playing in 35 degree temperature that could also see snow and rain.
More importantly, the Dolphins grade out as the 29th best run defense in the league according to Football Outsiders. They struggled to contain Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount this past Sunday, although the Pats neglected to run the ball extensively against them.
Buffalo won’t fall into that trap, and the Bills have been dynamite as a home dog this year. They covered against New England in week one and picked up outright wins over Carolina and Baltimore earlier in the year as well. The Jacksonville game was a big road win for them that should inspire some confidence as they hit the stretch run. It also illustrated that they should be beyond their mid-season struggles which resulted from both a tough schedule and some injury issues at the quarterback position.
I expect E.J. Manuel to have a quality end to a good rookie year, and I don’t think Miami should be favored by a full field goal. I’m taking the three and will look for a tight game here with the Bills and their deep running attack being the difference in potentially sloppy conditions.
Buffalo +3
