In a rematch of last year’s AFC title game the Patriots travel to Maryland to take on a hot Baltimore team that is looking to continue a run that could get them back into the playoffs with a chance to actively defend the Super Bowl crown that is still theirs right now.

One on hand, you have to like what Baltimore could be able to do here. New England has been soft against the run following their loss of several key defensive linemen a little over a month ago. Miami gashed them at times last week and Denver abused them to a large extent back in November as Knowshon Moreno racked up over 200 yards in a Sunday night loss.

Baltimore’s offense, however, is slowly picking up in efficiency behind a more pass oriented approach. The return of Dennis Pitta and the improved health of Jacoby Jones has really lifted this group, and while they did struggle in the red zone against Detroit, they also controlled the clock and won the game in a manner that was reminiscent of past success.

Situationally speaking, Baltimore appears to be getting healthier while the Pats are losing bodies left and right. Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins both missed the Miami game, which only compounded the seriousness of Rob Gronkowski’s season ending injury. Additionally, Nate Solder has been dealing with the effects of a concussion and, while he is expected to play, could be up for a tough day given the tenacity of the defensive front he is facing in a road environment.

But, as usual, it always comes back to Tom Brady. The latest round of setbacks to this team offers another chapter to a book that seems to be themed with the same issues. Nothing has gone correctly for New England this season, but it hasn’t stopped them from sitting at 10-4 and, prior to last week’s loss, being in position to grab the number one seed in the AFC.

Brady has been sensational this season and would get my vote for MVP. His competitiveness is undeniable, and he will undoubtedly be only more committed to getting his current group ready for the stretch run given the circumstances.

Being the number two seed and grabbing a much needed bye is still incredibly important, and should they get their two young receivers back, they still have enough weapons for Brady to make it work.

Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola are veterans who provided big games in South Beach, and I still envision this offense being quite good when everyone is on set. Losing Gronkowski really deters red zone efficiency, but their opponent this week isn’t exactly the leader in that metric either.

Baltimore just showed they are willing to rely on their kicker, and that was also the case the last time they met in the regular season. Last September, these two engaged in a classic, last second, 31-30 masterpiece which came down to a Justin Tucker 27 yard field goal as time expired.

This game could also be tight, and the idea of Baltimore covering the number 2.5 is no guarantee. Baltimore would, in virtually every category, appear to be the correct side here, but I’m anticipating a nail biter. Brady is exceptional in bounce back scenarios, and that is the case here. He will drive this team toward its finish with a disciplined focus, and that is the reason Vegas has no intention of providing him with a full field goal.