NFL Sunday News And Notes
Atlanta @ Carolina (-7.5)
– CAR offense is cursing, having amassed 30+ points in each of their last three.
– ATL is not a historically good team ATS on the road, but this is their second straight away from home and just lost.
– ATL is very injury riddled at this point.
– CAR defense has played excellent of late, but their secondary still flashes weakness at times (all three opponents during win streak having passing offenses ranked poorly).
– While points entice, do not trust ATL offense to take advantage of this defense enough to overcome what should likely be a 7-8 point spread.
Minnesota @ Dallas (-10/10.5)
– Josh Freeman could once again start for MIN.
– DAL has passing game and overall offensive explosiveness to abuse MIN secondary, especially in their house on fast track.
– Given the issues MIN has offensively at the quarterback position and their inability to effectively use Adrian Peterson, you have to wonder where the locker room is at.
– Backing DAL at such a number goes against every logical trend analysis regarding them as favorites, but is probably the correct side to this game.
New Orleans @ New York Jets (+6)
– NYJ defense was gashed through the air by CIN last week.
– Saints have a better QB and more experienced play calling, but NYJ should be able to neutralize a NO run game that has flown under the radar this year in providing good balance for the Saints.
– Home dog at this number shows value, but given Brees’ favorable matchup in this spot, at least touchdown is kore or less warranted.
Tennessee @ St. Louis (+3)
– STL off short week and last second defeat to division rivals.
– TEN not usually in the spot of road favorite, could be unusual position.
– Titans defense has been solid for the most part, but Jeff Fisher recreated the offense a bit last week, and the added balance is huge for Kellen Clemens.
– If Clemens has to play from behind, that creates huge problem.
– The Rams do boast a front seven capable of containing Chris Johnson.
– Jake Locker should play for TEN, but he could be rusty and could also lack the accuracy needed to take down what has been a weak secondary for STL.
Kansas City @ Buffalo (+3)
– Bills have been bad at home against quality teams over the years, but this team has played virtually every formidable visitor tough.
– Expected regression at some point for K.C.
– BUF matches up defensively with a true athlete win Kiki Alonso to contain Jamaal Charles. They are also witnessing improved secondary and defensive line play to become quality defense.
– BUF should be a good play here so long as Thaddeus Lewis plays. I would monitor the status of both he and their two running backs before backing them, however.
San Diego @ Washington (+1)
– 1PM east coast start time has seemingly been a blessing for this SD team under Mike McCoy (wins @ PHI and JAX with tight loss to TEN as well).
– WAS defense settled down last week against Broncos, but I still question their ability against Phillip Rivers.Robert Griffin III.
– Opposition has struggled to take advantage of S.D. secondary in recent match ups. This could be good opportunity for Griffin to get on track, but his play continues to be erratic and inconsistent in year 2.
Philadelphia @ Oakland (-2.5/3)
– Waiting for spot where Philly is undervalued, but not seeing it here.
– OAK deserves to be full field goal favorite in this game given their being overlooked for much of first half to season.
– Nick Foles should have match ups outside against OAK secondary.
– PHI defense, while bad against the pass, do have two quality spies with sideline to sideline speed to neutralize Terrelle Pryor in Mychal Kendricks and DeMeco Ryans.
– Tendency to not trust an east coast team playing out west, but it seems as if Eagles are much better away from home in recent years.
Tampa Bay @ Seattle (-15/16)
– SEA huge favorite at home. Monday night they were exposed on some mismatches and immature play calling.
– TB defense does not seem to care and issues with Schiano appear severe.
– Limited desire to take SEA here at this number, but feel they should be the right side.
Baltimore @ Cleveland (+2.5/3)
– CLE has played BAL tough the last several outing, including week two.
– CLE headed into bye while BAL is coming off one.
– BAL is 5-0 off by under current coach, john Harbaugh.
– Jason Campbell would be unknown factor in this game. He is competent, but can he make enough plays to win.
– BAL offense has looked bad in recent weeks, but they seem to have their OL settled and should come back regrouped off bye.
– CLE interior line has struggled with quality nose tackles and Haloti Ngata fits that description.
Pittsburgh @ New England (-6.5/7)
– PIT secondary has issues and Tom Brady will know how to take advantage.
– NE wide-outs can play young sometimes and have struggled in certain match ups.
– Playing Steelers at this number has been good option last several years.
– Number at 7 is quite fair given Brady’s abilities and the question marks surrounding Pittsburgh offensive line.
Indianapolis @ Houston (+3)
– Which Indianapolis team will show up and what will their offensive strategy be?
– How will the loss of Brian Cushing impact this team? First game off his ACL tear from 2012, they were scorched at home on Sunday night by Aron Rodgers.
– Waiting for opportunity to see IND defense exposed, but they have stood tall in every matchup.
– HOU, however, has excellent matchup with zone blocking scheme and took advantage last year in home spot versus IND.
– Also revenge game given Indianapolis win as home dog against Texans week 17, 2012.
– Should Ben Tate and Arian Foster be healthy, you have to like the fade of a public favorite with the questionable defense who is ALSO dealing with loss of Reggie Wayne, their most dependable offensive weapon around Luck.
– Waiting on status of HOU RB’s. Assumption, for now, is that Case Keenum will start over Matt Schaub.
Chicago @ Green Bay (-10.5)
– GB getting better every week seemingly despite injuries.
– Can CHI defense get back on track despite lackluster performance last game.
– CHI comes off bye, but must go with Josh McCown at quarterback. He is 11 year veteran who provides them a decent backup option.
– CHI/GB games have historically been low scoring.
– Rather than back either side, preference would be to play under, should you be able to get 50.
