In the back and forth nature of a league that always presents challenges, the Pittsburgh Steelers seem to be a darling of the betting public just three weeks removed from a pasting up in New England.

Wins over Buffalo and Detroit seem to have some forgetting the overall limitations of a roster that has significant weakness in several areas. This matchup with Cleveland will be interesting primarily because of the tightness of the line and the physicality with which both groups like to play.

Ben Roethsliberger is 15-1 against the Browns SU in his career, but he enters this game in Cleveland as a 1 point dog. That number opened as high as 2.5 and 2 on some sites and has settled down. I’d expect this game to be possibly be a pick’em come game time, with the Steelers also having a chance to be a slight favorite.

While Big Ben has performed admirably in the state of Ohio during his career, this is still a difficult game. The Steelers are 0-3 ATS on the road this season and they now have to face a rivalry game which preceeds a short week as they head into Baltimore on Thanksgiving night.

I don’t expect the Steelers to be in a position where they overlook any game given their miserable record. But there are other items in play here that make them somewhat overvalued.

Their two wins recently came both at home and against competition that struggled to match up with them. Buffalo was easing E.J. Manuel back into their game-plan in the matchup two weeks ago and that game looked more like an exhibition from Buffalo’s standpoint than anything else.

The Detroit game could have had a far different outcome if not for a boneheaded fake field goal by Jim Schwartz midway through the fourth quarter. The Lions controlled that game and their red zone defense against Pittsburgh had been pretty good up until the fourth quarter.

Much is being made about Pittsburgh’s revamped offense. Roethlisberger has had this unit in hurry up mode much of the previous two weeks, but their success hasn’t entirely been through the air. They still want to run the football, and did so against Buffalo. Detroit features a tougher run defense, and Pittsburgh’s 45 pass attempts were in large part due to them getting down early and also having favorable matchups with a banged up Lions secondary.

Cleveland features a strong run defense as well, and I like their ability to limit Le’Veon Bell in this spot. More importantly, Cleveland also has good matchups in being able to limit the Pittsburgh passing attack.

Much has been made about the fact that Cleveland has given up 14 passing touchdowns in their last 5 contests. The three given up to Andy Dalton were, more so than anything else, a byproduct of turnovers and easy field position afforded to the Bengals, whom Cleveland held to just six points in week three.

Those five games included in this analysis also included matchups with Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford at a time when they were rolling with Brandon Weeden at quarterback. Times have changed, and Jason Campbell is under center now, a development that helps their ability to protect the football.

Campbell is nothing special, but he was playing good football prior to his three interception performance in Cincy last week. Coming back home will help, as Campbell and the Browns overall have enjoyed better splits in their building.

Pittsburgh fell in Cleveland last year in a game that features Charlie Batch and a Pittsburgh offense commit a comedic number of turnovers. This year, turnovers could well decide the game again. Pittsburgh is not a defense that forces giveaways, and I actually really like the Browns matchups in the passing game here.

The Steelers have struggled to deal with the pass this season and that should continue here. Rob Chudzinski has proven more than adequate at creating quality game plans, and I expect him to attack the questionable secondary pieces for the Steelers.

Bill Gay should struggle against Davonne Bess and the Steelers safeties might not be able to handle Jordan Cameron over the course of 60 minutes. The Browns don’t have a great running game, but I expect them to focus on the pass and use it to their advantage.

The other large matchup advantage they have comes against Pittsburgh’s pass offense. Buffalo was unable to rush Roethlisberger as Pittsburgh got rid of the ball quickly while Detroit’s Ezekiel Ansah was a nonfactor a week ago. Cleveland boasts Paul Kruger, Jabaal Sheard and Barkevious Mingo along a defensive front that can also get pressure up the middle behind the powerful Phil Taylor.

If Roethlisberger is forced to put the ball in the air 45 times in this one, it won’t be pretty. This is the time of the year Ben usually gets hurt, and I have a feeling he’ll be taking more than a few nasty hits in this one. Joe Haden and Buster Skrine should be effective on the perimeter and I think Roethlisberger struggles to find a groove early.

Ideally this game would have much more value if the Browns were in the position of underdog, which they are not at the current number. I would wait this one out and see where it lands, but Cleveland -1 is a basically a money-line bet and good enough considering this number should probably be 2.5.

CLE -1