San Francisco and Carolina square off on Sunday in yet another rematch within these divisional playoffs. These teams are two of the most physical units in the league, and they have both reached this point in the season thanks to superb defense, quality quarterback play and consistent run games.
The Panthers hit the road back in week 10 and grabbed a hard fought 10-9 win over the niners thanks to a fourth quarter field goal and a defense which did not allow a second half point to be scored. Carolina possesses perhaps the most complete front seven in the NFL, and they ere able to keep the San Francisco ground game in check for much of that contest.
The Niners were a sloppy bunch back in week 10, and their play calling has changed drastically since then. They were able to net 105 yards on just 24 carries in that first contest, but many of their drives stalled thanks to six Panther sacks which put them in more third and long scenarios as opposed to third and short.
This new and improved San Francisco team has simplified their playbook and also has leading receiver Michael Crabtree healthy now. Vernon Davis suffered a concussion in the first half of that Panthers game. His absence took away Colin Kaepernick’s safety valve and, in many ways, led to the rough day for number seven.
This game will include Davis, Crabtree and defensive end Aldon Smith. Smith did not play in week 10 either as he was receiving treatment for a substance abuse issue. It is clear that the Niners have turned the corner in the latter part of the year thanks to the overall revitalization of their roster, and it makes them the hot NFC competitor coming into this game on Sunday.
Every year we typically see a wild card team get hot and surge into the latter rounds of the playoffs. The Niners have great coaching, confidence and determination. They know they belong in these playoffs, and they intend to go out and prove that this week.
For Carolina, this is unchartered territory. That argument might not matter for certain teams, and I intend in no way to take away from what this team has accomplished. They have turned around the direction of their franchise this season perhaps more so than any other group in the entire league, and Ron Rivera and Cam Newton should be lauded for their efforts.
But this team’s success is predicated on being able to run the ball and grind out methodical drives. Steve Smith is no longer a big play guy now that he is getting up there in age, but this offense has enough weapons to move the football efficiently. This game will be incredibly difficult, however, as they are facing off against a defensive line that has a healthy Justin Smith to go along with Aldon.
Simply put, when these two guys are on the field together, they make things happen. Justin is as physically dominant as any perimeter lineman in the league, and the opposition’s focus on him and Aldon makes life even easier for Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman.
Willis and Bowman combined for 13 tackles and one sack in that first game. Bowman was used as a cover man on Carolina tight end Greg Olsen for much of that game as well. Olsen finished with one catch for 14 yards.
The Carolina passing game and their ability to convert on third down will likely decide this game. Carolina’s secondary simply does;t have enough talent to blanket this new and improved offense the way it did in the first game.
While the Niners simply do not allow anyone to run it effectively on them, they are susceptible to giving up yardage through the air. That was a common theme for them in last year’s playoffs, and it could be a factor again here in this game.
Smith and Brandon LaFell both had nice games out in San Francisco. While the bye week has been far less valuable for home teams in round two during the last 8-9 years, I do think it will help this Carolina team. They have some pieces offensively that are more than capable of grinding out drives here so long as they understand the match-ups presented by San Francisco’s defense.
I’d look for Carolina to throw the ball a bit on first down. Carlos Rodgers did not play in Green Bay and is questionable or this game. If he is out or limited, there is no question that Cam Newton and Co. need to be more aggressive in attacking this defense down field. They have four talented receivers in Smih, LaFell, Ted Ginn and Domenik Hixon to go along with the aforementioned Olsen.
This spread opened as a pick-em before being bet up to SF -1/1.5. The number is hanging right around PK as of now, and it’s difficult to really think that their should be a favorite in this game. The first meeting illustrated how evenly matched these two are, and while S.F. is definitely the better team right now, they are on the road here and are playing a team that will likely take on the “Us-Against-The-World” mantra as they enter this game.
This could be the best game of the weekend and, while this modern NFL is more geared toward offense, there is little question that defense has ruled in the playoffs the last several years. San Francisco, Carolina and Seattle are all built quite similarly. Add to it that even New Orleans has made important strides in revamping their run game and front seven defensively, and its quite obvious that there is a new formula of sorts working for plenty of teams in this league.
If the Panthers were afforded something closer to a full field goal, I’d be inclined to say there is some value on them here. San Francisco should win this game, but I do not see much to be had given the current number. This could and should be another classic, and we’ll see if this young Panthers squad can grow up in a hurry as they try to navigate through this NFC playoff bracket.
