A battle of California hoops programs is set to take place tonight, and its safe to say that both groups could use a win.
The Trojans of USC are currently one point dogs as they head into Long Beach, this after being as high as a 2.5 point favorite earlier in the day. USC has three losses on the year, but did record two important wins recently in defeating B.C. and Xavier in back to back earlier in the month.
USC is going through some legitimate rebuilding transitions given their new coach and limited roster, but they still have a good starting five and are clearly in better overall shape. Long Beach has largely been a disaster this year. They have played a tough schedule, but have been absolutely manhandled in many of their losses and has looked horrific offensively at times.
While neither offense is great, the 49ers attack is putrid. They have two good players who would make serviceable rotation contributors in Dan Jennings and Michael Caffey, but little else. Their field goal metrics and overall offensive efficiency is quite bad, and USC is good enough defensively to take advantage of that.
More importantly than anything else is that the Trojans have size. They are inexplicably not a good defensive rebounding team, but the Beach is by no means either. USC plays quite fast, while Long Beach is awfully slow. Their lack of a legitimate point guard has been the primary problem in their ability to get quality looks, and I would expect that to continue.
Regardless of the speed of the game, USC is well to built to play either in this spot. Their beating Xavier on a neutral floor is evidence of what they can accomplish when playing a more defensive minded group.
Every factor in the matchup alone points to the Trojans, but this is only their second road game under their new coach. They also have a new point guard in Pe’Shon Howard who is a transfer still evolving within the scope of this team. Those are concerning as to is the fact that Long Beach is at least battle tested. Their numbers are bad, but they have played a schedule which includes Arizona, Kansas State (twice), Michigan, VCU and Creighton.
They were, however, much tougher in their most recent road venture at N.C. State. The Wolfpack are a bit of a team on the rise after their win over Tennessee, that thanks in large part to Jennings who was extremely tough down low. He is versatile enough to take advantage tonight as well, depending on what USC shows him defensively.
The game may well come down to who can get better bench productivity. USC has seven contributors where as Long Beach only five. This could be a tricky spot early for the Trojans, but they should eke this game out. Line value is limited at a pick em spot like this. But the Trojans could pose some value live or at halftime in my mind. This is a big game for both teams and could tell a lot about where they could both be headed.
