The 12-1 Minutemen of UMass get set for a home bout on Wednesday with an ever improving St. Joseph’s team. This will be an interesting A-10 opener for both, and will provide a true measuring stick for just how far the Hawks have come following a lackluster 4-4 start to their season.
The Hawks get it done with offense and don’t play great defense, something which does not bode well for this match-up. They have the 49th most efficient offense in America and feature a host of talented bodies on the offensive end.
Unfortunately, they rank 153 when it comes to defensive efficiency. They have not surrender massive scoring totals in most games because they play a slower pace, a strategy employed by head coach Phil Martelli in large part due to their lack of roster depth as they come in at 349 nationally in bench minutes.
UMass doesn’t have a ton of depth either, but they are at home here and should have the ability to dictate pace as a result of the multi-talented Chaz Williams leading the show. Williams has been fantastic at keeping this team organized and creating shots for others.
The Minutemen both shoot and defend the three point shot extremely well, and thats concerning for the Hawks given their current ranking of 110 nationally in three point defense. Williams has been aggressive and effective from behind the arc, which in turn has created more defensive attention provided to him outside.
But St. Joseph’s has steady guard play and they should be able to score some here. While Williams and Derrick Gordon are undoubtedly talented, so too is the backcourt combination of Langston Galloway and Chris Wilson.
DeAndre Bembry is a do it all sort of swing man who could create a matchup problem for UMass as they have yet to defend someone with the craftiness he possesses.
But the real key to the game could come down to the two front courts. Ronald Roberts and Halil Kanacevic are a really nice duo who do a variety of things for Martelli’s team.
But there is little behind the two of them on this roster, and that is bad news here. Cady Lalanne, Sampson Carter, Raphiael Putney and Maxie Esho combine to formulate a deeper front court. Lalanne is particularly dangerous as he is a very effective interior scorer, rebounder and also happens to be solid at the line.
He will likely matchup with Roberts while the others will rotate on Kanacevic, a fluid player who can both handle the ball and pass extremely well. UMass has dealt with its share of interesting big men in games with LSU, Florida State, New Mexico and Providence. But they have yet to see a player with Kanacevic’s versatility.
This number opened at about 9 and has fluctuated down into the 8/8.5 region as of right now. It’s a pretty fair assessment as to how this game should shake out. I had the number at 9.5, but familiarity and the beginning of conference play make it likely for this one to be a bit tighter than some anticipate.
In their lone meeting during 2012-2013, UMass blasted the Hawks 80-62. Four different Minutemen reached double figures and Williams dished out 9 assists.
While familiarity will help Martelli and Co. here, the Hawks simply are not good enough in dealing with dribble penetration. Their guards do most of their damage on the offensive end and lack the lateral quickness to really challenge Williams here.
I would not look to play the Minutemen at this number, but should the spread dip below 8, they would pose legitimate value for me. History tends to repeat itself, and while this St. Joe’s team could come back and have a nice season in the A-10, their defensive tendencies do not bode well here.
