The Bucs, fresh off back to back wins to snap an eight game losing streak to start their season, enter Detroit as a large underdog for this Sunday’s contest. Some sites are showing them as +10, while others are carrying numbers ranging from 8.5-9.5.

This is the point in the year where dogs at this number possess a definite level of value. Despite being 2-8 overall, Tampa has benefited from the presence of Mike Glennon.  He gives their offense a sense of life and optimism and that should help them significantly down the stretch.

On the flip side, Detroit comes in off a bad loss in Pittsburgh. They scored 27 points in a wild second quarter and were not able to muster a single point the rest of the game. A field goal that would have put them up seven midway through the fourth was never attempted, as Jim Schwartz opted for a fake that failed instead.

The loss was a miserable one for the Lions as they controlled the game from the second quarter on. Coming off that type of game will be difficult. What will make it even more difficult is the matchup that follows.

Based on recent trends, teams that play prior to a Thursday game have not done well against the number in the last few years. Moreover, Detroit’s Thanksgiving Day game comes against the Packers, making it a critical division rivalry matchup.

Many have come to the conclusion that Detroit is in a good spot here as their loss to Pittsburgh makes this a must win. While Chicago is breathing down their necks and they have to feel a sense of urgency here because Rodgers will eventually come back and they need to create some space in the standings prior to that time, it doesn’t mean they will handle the Bucs in the manner some feel is likely.

Detroit is 1-7 ATS in the game prior to Thanksgiving since 2005. While they are a strong home team, but they are also miserable when playing losing teams (just 10-21 ATS in the last 31 chances).

Their offense is undoubtedly legit, but they are still flawed in many ways. Reggie Bush exited their game in Pittsburgh as the result of a second lost fumble in three games. They have lacked a sufficient run game to provide any level of balance for Matt Stafford, and it’s starting to catch up to them.

There is a decent chance Nate Burleson plays in this game, which would be a huge help for Detroit. Burleson takes attention away from Calvin Johnson and also opens up space for Brandon Pettigrew down the seam and underneath as well.

Tampa’s defense has been up and down all year, a trend on display during their 13 point win over Atlanta last week. They have looked lost and bewildered at times on that side of the ball, but they have the players within their secondary to handle Calvin Johnson and limit him to more reasonable numbers. Darrelle Revis is one of the best corners in the game still. The Bucs will, however, be hampered by the loss of Dashon Goldson for this game due to suspension, a factor made larger given that Mark Barron has been limited thus far in practice this week.

Overall, Tampa has proven much more committed on the defensive side of the ball the last few weeks. I expect them to struggle at times in this game given the explosiveness Detroit possesses. Still, their offense should be able to keep them in it.

We saw Ben Roethlisberger abuse the Detroit defense when he had time to throw. Ezekiel Ansah, Detroit’s most skilled pass rusher, could possibly miss this game as he has been banged up for weeks.

Louis Delmas, Glover Quin and Bill Bentley are all also struggling with injuries. The Bucs are not terribly deep at receiver, but Glennon has proven more than capable of moving the football through the air and Tampa was also able to exhibit a better rushing attack in the Atlanta game.

As mentioned in some of our previous blogs, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to take the “bad” teams in the NFL these days regardless of number. Being on the  “right” side of a game doesn’t afford you a good enough chance of winning in certain situations, and I view the Bucs as somewhat of a tricky pick here.

Still, Detroit is not accustomed to being a double digit favorite over anyone. They are in a bad spot here based on trends and Tampa is a team that appears to have new life. I’m not sold on them believing in Greg Schiano. Regardless, there comes a point for many teams where, no matter how they feel about a coach, the losing becomes too much of a problem. Players want to keep their jobs or at least audition for new ones, and Tampa has guys on both sides of the ball who are playing motivated right now for whatever reason.

The last two weeks we have seen Tampa play loose and with a positive attitude. I think you see the same from them as they enter Detroit’s Ford Field on Sunday, and that’s enough to make me think that, as bad as their record is, the 10 points being afforded to them through certain books is well worth the investment.

Tampa Bay +10