Seattle has all but wrapped up the number one seed in the NFC. Their dismantling at home of a good New Orleans team was quite impressive, but has also become something we are accustomed to seeing from them.
Just like with their Monday night victim, they are virtually unbeatable at home in primetime under their current coach/quarterback combo. They are 5-1 in primetime affairs the last two seasons, having won all four home dates by a combined score of 119-25. They are rumored to be challenging all time decibel levels just based on crowd noise, and it was visibly distracting to New Orleans just a few nights ago.
I do not foresee anyone going into their stadium in the playoffs and beating them, although trends would say that New Orleans loss this past Monday would certainly help them should they have to travel back to the state of Washington.
This weekend’s Seahawks game is still incredibly important for another reason: it will mark their second date with last season’s NFC champion San Francisco. Beating the 49ers would be the second instance this season in which that has happened and would also likely clinch their division given that their other remaining division games come at home.
It would also set up for another interesting precedent should Seattle get the win and then play the Niners again in the playoffs: it would set up for a third meeting between two NFL teams for only the twenty-first time ever and the first since 2009.
Historically speaking, the team going for the 3-0 sweep is 12 for 20. Most recently, Dallas successfully did it over Philly in the 2008-2009 season after having failed the year before against the Giants.
Should the Niners get into the second session, they have already proven they can play with the likes of New Orleans down in Louisiana. They would also probably be favored on the road in games with Detroit or Dallas, and so the idea of these two playing in an NFC divisional game or title game is very realistic.
But enough with the potential for what this could be come January. The game Sunday is still incredibly important and should be a good one as evidenced by the 2.5 point spread thrown out by Vegas odds-makers.
They clearly do not desire to provide the Seahawks with a full field goal, and that has strategy has seemingly established quality two way action on this one as roughly 54% of spread bets are flowing in on the home favorite.
San Fran defeated Seattle 13-6 last year at home on a Thursday night. A powerful running game spearheaded by Frank Gore combined with a multitude of dropped passes by a young Seahawks receiving corps were the primary creators of that result.
While Seattle has perhaps the deepest and best group of defensive linemen in the league, they have had trouble dealing with Gore and the interior power run game of S.F. in recent match-ups. The Niners do not incorporate the stretch running and zone blocking schemes typical of the finesse running styles used by many other teams.
They line up and smack you in the face. They pull their guards and utilize quick handoff plays which enabled Gore immediate access to the interior of the opposition. This has proven demoralizing for many opponents, but Seattle isn’t one of them.
Seattle will allow Gore to rattle off 5-10 yard gains with regularity, but the red zone is an entirely different issue. Dating back to that 13-6 win a year ago, the Niners have only scored two touchdowns against Seattle in the last three match-ups, all the while settling for a grand total of five field goals in those three games.
The ability to run the ball inside the red zone has been negated by what Seattle can do in its back end. We talked about their defensive line, but they also boast the best and deepest crop of corners the league has seen in a while.
They believe in one-on-one coverage with little to no safety help, thus enabling Earl Thomas to play closer to the line of scrimmage where he is a nightmarish run stopper and fearsome hitter. Thomas cleans up the loose ends and typically puts the opposition in third and long.
Colin Kaepernick will once again be critical here. Kaepernick had monumental success as a rookie during his run to the Super Bowl. It’s kind of funny that he used to be a pitcher at Nevada and had an incredibly promising baseball career prior to entering the NFL.
Throughout his first year and a half as a starter, his career has projected exactly like that of a pitcher who just got to the big leagues. He was “un-hittable” in much of the stretch run during 2012 and into the playoffs before being “figured out” by many opponents in 2013. Seattle, Indianapolis and Carolina limited him tremendously in early season games, mostly by forcing him to make quick decisions and read the entire field. St. Louis also had success against him last Sunday in what was their second look at him this year. They also beat him once and tied him another time during 2012.
Look back at the first matchup between these two. Yes, Seattle won 29-3, but it was only 5-0 at the half. Seattle’s offense did little to nothing, and their 29 points are quite deceiving given the complete disfunction the Niners displayed on offense. They attempted 28 passes that night and only gave the ball to Frank Gore nine times.
They held Marshawn Lynch to 3.5 YPC and Russell Wilson’s final stat line was 8/19 for 142 yards and both a TD and INT. While the ‘Hawks won the game 29-3, let’s not act like their offense is in any way capable of dominating this Niners defense with regularity.
Seattle’s offense is undoubtedly more certain of itself right now than San Fran’s, and that made for a brutal game up in Seattle back in September. Colin Kaepernick looked like a pitcher trying to play quarterback in that outing, but I expect him to be more of a game manager here. This one should resemble the grind that was so typical of this rivalry prior to the last two games in Seattle.
I like San Francisco in this game, but not enough to take it. A rivalry of this magnitude is difficult to gage and assess. Most sharps will play a home favorite laying less than 3 when the teams are perceived to be even, but I think the price is fair for a couple reasons.
For starters, the Seahawks are simply a better team right now. Seattle’s offense is slowly evolving into a potential juggernaut given Russell Wilson’s skills, and that is problematic for the Niners here.
Additionally, this game may not play out according to any normal scenario whereby a field goal would be the likely landing point for the final score. Given the Niner’s inept nature in the red zone against this Seahawk’s defense, a 16-14 or 23-21 type of game would be logical and the money-line is probably too steep to make a worthwhile wager on.
Regardless, this will be another intriguing chapter into what has quickly become the NFL’s best rivalry. I look forward to it and what could be in January should they meet for a third time.
