New Orleans is in a difficult position given that they are playing on a short week and had to stay overnight in Seattle on Monday due to a plane malfunction.
Teams who just played the Seahawks have not performed well ATS the following week, but I think that changes here. Drew Brees looked absolutely miserable in his performance up in Seattle, and he has historically been very good when coming off lackluster games.
This is a pivotal game in the NFC South, and it will come in primetime and at home, a scenario that has been very kind to New Orleans in recent years. Their dome is as loud as it gets in the league, and I’d expect a fiery fan base to show up at the Superdome come Sunday night.
Cam Newtown has not performed well ATS in tight games, and that seems to be how bookmakers see this game going, with the spread currently fluctuating between 3 and 3.5 as of now.
Catching New Orleans at a diluted number when at home is almost always beneficial. Just look at the Dallas and Miami games, both of which came in primetime and saw the host laying less than a full TD.
Carolina is better than both of those groups, but not by a massive margin in my mind. They struggled with Tampa at home for much of the first half last week and have only really defeated two quality teams during their current win streak (San Francisco and New England).
Newton has not seen this revamped Saints defense yet this season, and he’ll have a lot to review on tape this week. The Saints mix up their coverages and blitz schemes as well as any unit in the league, and that’s bad news for a quarterback who is still a work in progress when it comes to pre-snap reads.
Moreover, I love Brees in this game given the issues Carolina has in its secondary. Mike Wallace, Rob Gronkowski, Tavon Austin and Vincent Jackson all exposed Carolina for the issues they have. Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Darren Sproles and Kenny Stills should create a massive headache for Ron Rivera in this one.
I had this line at 4 and grabbed New Orleans at -3 when I saw it available. This is a good situational spot for them and should be a game where they flex their muscles on an opponent that is simply outmatched in certain, critical areas.
NO -3
