Texas State @ SMU
Texas State features only six players who score more than six points per game, two of whom averaged double digits (15 and 10). They are a team with major depth issues and turnover problems who would prefer to play at a slower pace than what they will see in this game.
SMU got trounced by Arkansas a few nights back primarily because it was a bad matchup for them. their style was put to the test against a more experienced unit and i failed them. This is an ideal matchup for them to have at home and you have to like Larry Brown with this team coming off a loss.
SMU -13
Wichita State @ Tulsa
The Shockers enter this game as five point home dogs against a Final four team from 2013 that returns a sizable chunk of their roster.
Tulsa is a rather interesting team. They have a nice one-two punch in Shaquille Harrison and Rashad Smith, two 19 PPG scorers who command defensive attention.
The Golden Hurricane also have a deep roster littered with a reasonable amount of size. Their real issue is the glass. Wichita holds a sizable advantage here and it will likely cost Tulsa the ability to win this game. I don’t think its inconceivable for them to cover given Wichita’s youth and the fact that they have the scoring for backdoor potential.
Dayton @ Georgia tech
I view the Yellow Jackets as a really dangerous team. they are strong enough defensively and have a good command of the defensive glass. The other major bonus for them is their influx of new scoring in the form of Trae Golden.
Golden, a transfer from Tennessee, is the perfect guard to come into their back court. He is ballsy enough to take big shots and provides them with a scoring punch they did not have in previous years.
Covering a spread of 7.5 will largely come down to just how good their opponent is. I’m a little weary of this Dayton squad. They go eight deep and sport four players scoring in double figures to go along with 6’10 center Matt Kavanaugh who returns after a suspension during 2013.
They are both strong enough on the glass to battle Georgia Tech here, and i do not trust the depth of the Yellow Jacket point proaction to cover a number this high early on. They looked strong at Georgia a few days ago, but this is a better opponent regardless of where the game is played.
Valpo @ Evansville
Colt Ryan and three other seniors leave an Evansville team that fought hard in the deep Missouri Valley conference in 2013. But it appears Evansville has reloaded relatively quickly, and that makes their date with Valpo here one of the most intriguing games on the card.
One again the Purple Aces are not that big of a group, but they do have a presence in 6’10 center Egidijus Mockevicius, Ryan Sawvell also has good size, but neither player is logging in excess of 19 minutes per game in the young season.
That is due to the fact that Evansville, as a program preference, desires a guard heavy lineup. I think in many ways that will make both the pace and overall style of this game pretty clean and perimeter oriented. Both teams feature several capable shooters, none more so than D.J. Balentine.
The 6’2 sophomore is averaging an eye opening 29 PPG this season and is shooting well over 50%. Evansville appears to have a quality offense with several skilled pieces. That is not good for a Valpo defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NCAA in defensive efficiency.
Their performance in illinois was pretty inspiring last week, and you had to see some things you like in Valpo as they were very much in the game well into the second half on the road.
LaVonte Dority and Jordan Coleman give them a steady back court combination. They are aided in the front court by Alec Peters, a 6’8 freshman forward who has a good frame. He is joined in the front court by 6’10 Bobby Capobianco.
Capobianco is a large body, but he prefers to play on the perimeter. I am tempted to take Valpo in this situation, but they number is not large enough for me to ignore their turnover issues, inefficiency on the glass and lack of a defensive playmaking.
