A battle of two NFC playoff contenders will take place at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday. For the Eagles, it will be their third home game in four weeks and offers them an opportunity to ensure, at worst, a .500 finish following a disaster of a year in 2012.

The Lions possess a one game lead in their division following their Thanksgiving Day massacre of the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers team. Barring a return to the field for one of the game’s most respected quarterbacks, this division is basically Detroit’s to lose, so long as the Bears do not make an unexpected push in these last four games.

Detroit enters this game in a difficult spot, however. Two trends indicate concern for them as they get set to do battle in Philadelphia as 2.5 point underdogs. For starters, they have been downright bad under Jim Schwartz in scenarios during which they hit the road following a home win ATS. Additionally, they have not had much success against the number when playing a game following an outing in which they put up 30+.

The Lions managed to hang a 40 spot on Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. While the extra rest of having played a Thursday game affords them a mini bye, I just don’t see it being enough here given the hunger of their opponent.

Philadelphia is red hot right now and it’s mostly due to the fact that they have a quarterback who is hitting on all cylinders. Nick Foles was the man Chip Kelly wanted under center from the get go this year, and he now has his wish. Since taking over for injured starter Michael Vick, Foles has reinvigorated Riley Cooper and also made it a point to get the ball to his tight ends more.

Rookie Zach Ertz has been a much larger factor the last few weeks, averaging 2 additional targets per game with Foles calling the shots in the last four games. Brent Celek has also become more of a problem for defenses, and Foles seems very content to work the ball underneath as opposed to forcing things downfield, an issue that plagued Vick and led to turnovers.

I also tend to like what Kelly’s run game can do in a spot like this. The stretch plays so typical of their offense will take the ball out of the middle of the field and away from Detroit’s premier interior defensive linemen. More pressure will be placed on the ends and linebackers to make plays in space, and I could see Shady McCoy having a big day.

McCoy was a non-factor in last year’s matchup between these two, and I expect that to change on Sunday. Foles has the ability to manipulate a shaky Detroit secondary that has been exposed countless times in recent weeks against the likes of Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh.

While the Eagles are awful as a home favorite the last 25 or so instances in which they have been placed into that role, I could see things starting to change here. They have won two in a row at home and the Linc has been excited and loud both times. That’s not good for a road team like Detroit, and it’s hard for me to really agree with odds makers that this number should be less than 3.

These two teams are relatively even at this point in the year. The fact that Philly is at home and not laying a full field goal presents value. This past Sunday they were 3.5 point favorites against a team I also felt they were more or less equivalent to. The game landed on 3, and backers of the road dog made out. Beating a critical number is an easy and simplistic way to approach a game, and it should be considered here.

A big part of their potential for success will come down to how they handle the Detroit offense. Calvin Johnson is a matchup nightmare and having Nate Burleson back has enabled this offense to start clicking. I really like the athleticism Philly has at linebacker to deal with Reggie Bush. Bush is a key factor in this offense’s success, and should they be able to contain him, it would be a major matchup victory in the scope of this game.

Cary Williams has been playing better ball as of late and they will likely use a safety over the top of Johnson at all times. I do not expect Philly to shut down this offense, but I do believe they can keep pace with them on the scoreboard. They did a solid job of keeping Arizona’s aerial attack in check this past Sunday, and seem to be improving in that regard overall.

Detroit is a good ball club and could win this game. But I look at Philly as a hot team that should be able to hold serve on their home turf. Kelly and Foles have brought an excitement to this organization and their fans are feeding off that. It’s going to be a difficult game, but the value is there.

Philadelphia  -2.5