Two teams clearly on the rise within their respective conferences square off in Provo, Utah tonight. Iowa State, fresh off a really good win over seventh ranked Michigan, comes into this game with similar offensive productivity as what the Cougars have, and that’s saying something.
The Cyclones have two matchup nightmares in George s Niang and Melvin Ejim. Both are bigger forwards who can step out and shoot the basketball. They are joined in the lineup by 6’4 DeAndre Kane, a Pittsburgh native and former teammate of current San Antonio Spur DeJuan Blair.
Kane transferred from Marshall prior to this season and gives the Cyclones a big bodied guard who can do it all. They haven’t had a piece like that in recent seasons, with most of their guards coming in the 5’11-6’0 variety.
What makes Kane so valuable is his rebounding. Through three games this season he is grabbing nearly eight boards a night. Niang, Ejim and 6’6 junior Dustin Hogue give this team much needed toughness on the glass, a factor that really enabled them to neutralize Michigan’s Mitch McGary down low.
But this BYU game will be a different sort of matchup. Not only does it come on the road, but it will take place against one of the best scorers in America in Tyler Hawes.
At 6’5, Hawes is very difficult to defend. I could see both Kane and perhaps even Hogue being used on him during stretches of this game. He is excellent at using screens to get to areas of the floor where is comfortable, and he can shoot it from anywhere.
The key to the BYU success during this young season has been his movement away from the ball. Much of it comes with the intent of him getting the ball around the elbow or short corner areas. For as good of a shooter as he is, he does not rely on the three point shot, forcing defenses to monitor him closer to the basket and in the paint area, which often opens up opportunities for BYU’s front court.
Eric Mika and Kyle Collinsworth are both averaging in double figures thus far and much of their production has stemmed from them getting easy buckets and put back opportunities triggered by Haws’ presence. Anson Winder and Matt Carlino are guards who can score as well, and Carlino is a good floor leader who knows how to space his offense and distribute.
Neither of these teams are great defensively, and both can get to the free throw line with regularity. This line opened at 5/5.5 with the home team favored and has jumped up closer to 7 in the last few hours.
The question marks surrounding Iowa State on the defensive end are a major factor in this line move. While ISU has talent at the guard position, they also have new pieces coming together there, and that could spell trouble as well. New players playing together on the road in a game in which they will have trouble stopping the opposition means big runs are likely for the Cougars.
Still, seven seems a bit high when you factor in that these two are about equal on the glass. ISU has a tad bit more depth as well, although not enough to really affect the spread. BYU likes to show zone looks, and so the Cyclones will have to shoot the three ball well (something they are fully capable of).
But Fred Hoiberg’s team also has the tendency to fall in love with the three, and that could spell danger here. ISU is not great on the offensive boards, and so they will likely struggle to take advantage of the BYU zone should they settle for the perimeter shot and not hit with consistency.
At seven full points, I think Iowa State is probably the correct side to this game. Still, given the factors discussed, it’s really too close to call. BYU can pour points on in a hurry and foul shooting down the stretch could also enhance this line to its given level.
