In a battle of blue chip programs whose names carry as much weight as any in the game, the newly ranked Tar Heels will host John Calipari’s club this weekend in an important matchup for both teams.

Roy Williams’ group has apparently turned a massive corner in beating Michigan State on the road a week ago. Their length and depth inside was on display in that game, and could be a major factor in determining the winner here.

This game is sporting a three point spread with UNC playing the role of small, home favorite. These two are mirror images of each other in many ways as they rely on size and length to control the glass and defensive end.

UNC comes in at number eight nationally in defensive efficiency while the Wildcats are 40. In virtually every game save for the Belmont loss, UNC has limited the opposition’s ability to get easy buckets. They are 22 in two point defensive percentage and want to play a style that forces the opponent to hit from outside, something that cost them against the Bruins.

Kentucky has been average in that regard thus far this season. They are 206 in team three point percentage but do have some capable shooters who can get hot. James Young is starting to find his groove with each game and provides a nice stretch consideration to open up space inside for Julius Randle.

But the key to winning this game on the road for the ‘Cats is going to be contingent upon point guard play. Andrew Harrison has registered only four performances on the year in which he dished out four assists or more. He has struggled to create plays for his teammates against defenses that are either packing it in or playing heavy zone. His brother, Aaron, is also struggling to find his offensive game at times in a system that relies heavily upon interior scoring.

For Randle, this might be his toughest spot yet this year. Roy Williams has a stable of interior bodies to throw at him and this Tar Heel team is excellent at communicating on the defensive end. I’d look for a flurry of doubles to come Randle’s way, and this game should allow us to see how willing a passer he is.

Randle could also be forced to guard James Michael McAdoo on the other end, creating a sticky situation for the big man who has yet to prove he is comfortable in playing away from the basket. McAdoo is excellent at stepping out and hitting from mid range and the short corner

Watch out for Marcus Paige. The 6’1 sophomore is the key to UNC’s offense right now. His 0-6 performance from deep was a critical element in allowing UAB to escape with a win back on December 1. UNC seems to play up or down to its competition, and you can bet they’ll be fired up here. Paige is the offensive triggerman to some extent, and probably the only reliable perimeter scorer for the Tar Heels as well. While he is capable, he will be dealing with defenders who have more length than he has seen to date.

Kentucky has athletes at the guard spot in the aforementioned Harrison twins to throw at Paige. Both stand at 6’6 and can alter shots. I lean to the home team as i think three is a tad bit light. But I do expect to see a quality effort from Calipari’s bunch. They looked sluggish at times against Boise and were simply outplayed by Baylor.

The game against the Bears came in Dallas, but this will be the first true road game for Kentucky, and that is enough for me to take a stab with the hot Tar Heels. I don;’t see Calipari’s team having it together enough just yet to pull this one out.

UNC -3