Much has been made about Duke’s defensive issues this year. Kansas, Vermont, ECU and Arizona all exploited them on that end, and Michigan is a very unique opponent entering this game.
The Wolverines have a really special playmaker in Nik Stauskas. Derrick Walton, Zak Irvin, Glenn Robinson and Caris LeVert offer additional weapons at the guard and small forward slots. Mitch McGary should hold a considerable advantage inside against virtually anyone who is assigned to him as well, and interior depth is about even between the two in this one.
I do not see Duke having a legitimate answer to Stauskas, but I also don’t see a player on Michigan’s roster built to deal with Jabari Parker. The freshman has had his way with more athletic teams this season, and Tuesday could be yet another coming out party of sorts for him.
Parker, who stands at 6’8, 235, could see a considerable amount of time on the low block in this game. Duke has yet to really establish him down there, but it is imperative here as his presence down low will create more space for the Duke guards.
Quinn Cook, Tyler Thornton and company have struggled thus far this season. They have looked out of sorts offensively and their defense has been far less than impressive.
Coach K is working to find the best rotation at the guard position, and you have to wonder when he opts to play Rasheed Sulaimon increased minutes. Sulaimon is hovering around 20 minutes a game, but if this team is going to really excel, they might as well play him heavier minutes and attempt to be a team that simply outscores its opponents.
It’s unlikely the Duke coaching staff wants to go that right so early. They want to become better on the defensive end, and that will likely be their calling card here. This is a big game and a major test for both. Michigan already played on the road, and lost, in Aimes, Iowa a few weeks back.
The fact that Duke has not impressed in their last several games makes this a very crucial spot for them. They should be focused and determined given that they are playing a team very capable of beating them.
But Michigan too has much to prove. Of all the teams ranked currently, they are the one that can in many ways be most intriguing. They appear impossible to stop at times on offense, yet they also went down to Charlotte on a neutral floor. Their defense and overall toughness has to be questioned at this stage, but they are good on the offensive end.
That’s what makes this game so interesting: the one on one match-ups. Parker and Stauskas could very well dominate this game for stretches, but making critical defensive plays will determine the winner. Rodney Hood is an excellent candidate for that, and I like the way he matches up in this game, especially on the offensive glass.
I had this at Duke -4.5, but Vegas is throwing around 7. I like the value in Michigan’s number very much, but situationally this game favors Duke. The fact that Michigan looks nothing like the two teams that almost beat them earlier in the season on this floor also scares me off. This should be one of the best games of the night and could be a classic. It won’t be a game I’d play.
