After weeks of seemingly brutal primetime games, the NFL schedule makers did us a favor this week. They first flexed the Chiefs-Broncos game into the NBC special last night and followed up with an AFC-NFC matchup tonight that should be quite interesting.
The Patriots come into this game at 7-2 overall, 2-2 away from home. Following a loss to New York in a crazy game back on October 20, the Pats have followed up with two wins against conference foes in Miami and Pittsburgh. They had the week off last week prior to hitting the road tonight.
For Carolina, they have been perhaps more impressive than their Monday night counterpart, regardless of the fact that their record is not quite as good. Since opening the season 1-3, they have rattled off five straight wins, the most impressive of which was a 10-9 dogfight of a game in San Francisco last week.
Many analysts seem to have written off the Niners following that game. They have alluded to Colin Kaepernick’s inability to throw the ball downfield as a primary determinant in that loss. The overall public perception is that San Francisco failed to win that game while Carolina did just enough not to lose.
While some of that is accurate, the Niners followed up that performance with what should have been a win in New Orleans yesterday. They showed just how good their defense can be, and had it not been for a bogus penalty on Ahmad Brooks on a third and long in Niner territory on the game ending drive, we might be sitting here singing the praises of Jim Harbaugh and company once again.
Regardless of how that game played out, Carolina is a very good team. They are red hot against the number having covered each game during that win streak (three times as a favorite, twice as a dog).
They boast the NFL’s number one rated defense and have balance in that they are really improved against the pass when compared to 2012. Their corner play has improved mightily and they brought in two safeties in Quintin Mikell and Mike Mitchell who have played well thus far this season.
More importantly however, is their front seven. Carolina might just have the deepest rotation of defensive linemen in the league. Their middle linebacker, Luke Kuechly, is as good a player as there is at the position right now. They suffocate opposing run games and force teams to be one dimensional.As far as this matchup goes, there is a lot to break down. For all the attention Tom Brady and company have received, the run game has been a far more important element to their success than people realize. They pounded it 35 times for a 5.6 yard average in their last game against usually stingy Pittsburgh. They also ran it a whopping 37 times against Miami the week before that.The three headed monster of Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden has given Bill Belichick and his men more balance than in maybe any other season, but I’m quite uncertain as to whether that helps them here.
Not only are the Pats on the road, but they are playing a physically abusive group in the Carolina defense. While Brady is undoubtedly one of the greatest players of our era, he has his hands full in this one. He has traditionally struggled against the physical defenses in the league (see Baltimore and San Francisco last season). If he is not provided a stable rushing attack in this one, I think he could be in for third and long quite often.
The Pats get a boost because Chase Blackburn is out of this one due to injury. Blackburn, a former Giant, is one of the better coverage options the Panthers have at linebacker, and I would assume that some combo including him and a safety would have been Ron Rivera’s preference to counteract Rob Gronkowski here.
“Gronk” could play a massive role in this game. Carolina realistically doesn’t have a great matchup for him, and if Brady is afforded time to throw, he’ll have options. Still, his weapons outside are probably not quite good enough to expose the limitations Carolina’s secondary does have, and that could be a major difference maker.
Moving over to the other side of the ball, there are some additional factors which benefit the Panthers in this game. The Pats have historically been a really good run defense in the Vince Wilfork era. Given his advanced age and the loss of Jerrod Mayo a few weeks back, the New England rush defense has struggled mightily, as they rank 22nd in the league in that area.
While their pass defense has been good, they will likely be without the services of Alfonzo Dennard, a small and speedy corner who is shifty enough to hang with the likes of Ted Ginn and Steve Smith when at full go.
Aqib Talib is also questionable with a hip injury. He is expected to play, however, as is Kyle Arrington. Steve Gregory will also miss this game. While not a formidable presence at safety, he is a heady body who knows what Belichick wants out of his back end.
When analyzing this game and considering the current number (Carolina favored by 2.5 or 3 depending on book), many seem to like New England. The perceived value of taking the Pats as underdogs coming off a bye is relatively obvious, and could make for a good play.
But I see this game quite differently. I look at the injuries to New England as being more critical than those to Carolina. The Panthers should also be able to utilize their ground game to move the football and engineer long drives (something they’ve done in many of their five straight wins), which will keep Brady on the sideline more than he would like.
The key to beating Brady and this offense is to control the clock, force them into third and difficult and also hit the quarterback. The Panthers have all the necessary ingredients to do so here, and that’s why I like them in this spot.
Considering how good Brady is, I still have these two teams basically even. It’s tough to fade Brady in any scenario, but if you can get the Panthers at less than a full field, goal, you should be in good shape. This line really should be the full three. While books are obviously hesitant to provide that number to a publicly backed team, I think it benefits those who like the Panthers and makes for a strong play.
Carolina -2.5
