North Carolina’s beat-down of Sparty last Wednesday night not only was shocking given the start to the year for both programs and the perceived hype surrounding Tom Izzo’s team. It was also important because it called for a changing of the guard at number one.
There is a new sheriff in town and it is Arizona. The Wildcats were 15-1 to win it all a few months ago. That number has declined considerably since, with Arizona looking mighty impressive early on. Their nine point victory in San Diego over the Aztecs of SDSU looks far more impressive given what Steve Fisher’s program has also accomplished over the holiday weekend.
Arizona came from behind to beat a thin Drexel squad as well and also knocked off a good Duke team with relative ease when they came to MSG over Thanksgiving. They have handled everything on their schedule to date and head into the Pac-12 season as they conference favorite. A weekend trip to Michigan could challenge the likelihood they are undefeated prior to conference play starting, but either way this team appears strong and in good hands at the coaching spot.
ESPN Insider recently came out with a debate concerning Arizona’s ability to win it all. We will attempt to elaborate on that debate and answer it as best as possible.
In a season where front court size and overall length and athleticism seem to be playing a far bigger role than past years, someone forgot to mention the Wildcats when the preseason rankings were initiated. Kentucky, Kansas, Louisville and Michigan State were all applauded as top ten teams for how their rosters shook out, but the Wildcats lack little in comparison when considering the talent they inside.
Angelo Chol opted to transfer out of the program and fellow key reserve Grant Jerrett left to go pro based on the suspicion that playing time would be scarce for them in Tucson. Both were immensely talented, and their departures indicate as to just how strong this lineup is.
Few programs could lose bodies with the skill those two brought to the table without paying a price, but the Wildcats seem to have become better. Brandon Ashley is a wiry, 6’8 body from the Bay area who rebounds as consistently as anyone on the roster. Kaleb Tarczewski shook off an average 2012 campaign and looks to be in considerably better physical condition entering this season.
They form the basis for this front court, but two freshmen are critical to the attack as well. Aaron Gordon lacks some of the half court skills necessary to be a major factor in March’s favorite tournament, but it doesn’t mean he can’t have a huge imprint on any game. His 9.1 RPG are about as good as it gets for freshmen nationally.
Multiple prominent high schools coaches in and around the Philadelphia area believe that, in any other year, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson would have been a top three player in the nation. He is 6’7, 215 and extremely fluid with the ball in his hands. He is also proving to be a very good defender in spurts, with his 27 minute performance in the Duke game mostly revolving around his ability to tail Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker.
For Arizona to bring a player of his caliber off the bench is almost beyond belief. His presence provides them perhaps the best six man rotation in all of college hoops, and we haven’t even touched upon the guards they have.
T.J. McConnell is a proven floor leader and is the only player on the entire roster who would probably not be considered an “elite” athlete. He had 10 points, eight assists and six rebounds in the Duke game to go along with only two turnovers. Against UNLV, he had 13 points, seven boards, six assists and three steals.
McConell is joined in the back court by Nick Johnson, perhaps the most important player on this team. While the aforementioned front court is scary, none of those team members are great at scoring in an efficient manner within the half court.
Johnson was relied upon time and time again in the Drexel game to get to the basket, and he did just that. Still an evolving shooter from the perimeter, he is an incredible athlete at 6’3 and can at least get to the basket against virtually any defender.
For now, that’ll be just fine. His penetrating skills offer, at worst, a rebounding opportunity for his front court. But for the Wildcats to win a national championship, they will need him to finish those chances against teams whom have the size to neutralize Arizona on the glass.
Teams like Kentucky and Kansas, while they have their own limitations, won’t allow Gordon and company to get easy second chances, and winning tournament games the deeper they get will require Johnson to be the scorer Solomon Hill was a season ago.
All in all, there is a lot to be impressed with. Sean Miller has his most experienced and athletic club since setting foot in Tucson, and one can only wonder what he can do with it over time. This team could evolve in a variety of positive ways throughout a season that will include trips to UCLA, Cal, Colorado and Oregon.
They should also end up being the number one seed in the west as I do not anticipate them losing more than 3-4 games given their schedule. Other national powers are strong, but seeing Arizona finish outside the top 4-6 is unlikely.
But I do believe that the elite defensive groups will give them trouble. Take a team like Oklahoma State as well. Marcus Smart could take McConnell out of the game and also offer a matchup nightmare that could force the Wildcats into a zone defense on that end. The Cowboys are also athletic and versatile enough defensively to stymie Arizona the same way Drexel a little over a week ago.
This is a team that should be in the Elite 8 and possibly the Final 4, but winning it all forces Johnson to take on an expanded role. His 17 PPG on 54% shooting is impressive right now, but a game deep in the tournament will force them to prove they can hit from the outside given the length of certain defenses. Johnson, sophomore Gabe York and McConnell offer them options from deep that could be a game changer over time.
Keep an eye on Miller and this club. This could be a breakthrough season of sorts for them, and the program has been building up in a very positive way over the course of the last two years. 2013 should be a great opportunity for them to win the ultimate prize, although they have a lot to improve in terms of half court efficiency in order claim it.
