The Divisional round of the NFL playoffs will kick-off Saturday afternoon with an NFC showdown that could be interesting. New Orleans travels back to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team that clobbered them on a Monday night way back in week 13.
That game finished 34-7 and resulted in Drew Brees’ lowest passing yardage output in years. The Seahawks attacked up front and were able to utilize pressure to their advantage. An early defensive touchdown gave Seattle a 10-0 lead which they would never relinquish.
While that game in many ways looked awful for New Orleans and has undoubtedly added to the negative perception of them as a “soft” road group, it wasn’t the easiest of scenarios for Sean Payton’s club. The early December matchup came in between two divisional games and Brees and company looked flat to say the least.
Heading into the divisional round, the biggest key to understanding these clubs is to decipher which wild card teams are overvalued. Fans and bettors become enamored with a hot storyline from a wild card game that will have to be forgotten about quickly as that team moves onto a more difficult road challenge.
For New Orleans, they opened as nine point dogs in this one prior to the number being bet down a bit into the 7.5/8 range. While Seattle is no doubt the class of this conference, the current spread represents a big jump from a few weeks back. Seattle opened as 4.5-5 point favorites in that first matchup prior to the number being bet up toward 6/6.5 closer to game time.
Seattle is both fast and physical. They have corners with enough skill to neutralize the Saints passing attack, and they also have a great run defense. Payton’s offense has been extremely balanced recently, as they’ve made it a point to stick to the ground game even in tough spots. Pete Carroll’s club can completely take away the opposition’s rushing attack, something that could pay dividends in this game.
But there are other interesting factors in play for Seattle heading into this match-up. For starters, they will be without starting corner Brandon Browner. The 6’4 specimen opposite of Richard Sherman has been suspended for a lengthy period. Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond will attempt to pick up where he left off, although neither is quite the specimen Browner is. His loss is particularly troubling in a game like this where his size would have been very beneficial in helping neutralize Jimmy Graham.
Additionally, while the Seahawks offense flourished in the first meeting, they will feature a new wrinkle here with Percy Harvin expected to play. Harvin is an electrifying athlete who can do a variety of things for an offense. Offensive coordinators dream of having a player with these skills in their lineup, and Seattle will look to take advantage.
But this game would be Harvin’s first action all year with his new team. Pete Carroll has been digging for a playmaker to come in following Sidney Rice’s injury, but working in a new guy right before a massive playoff game is likely less than ideal regardless of his talent level. Wilson and Harvin have literally no game experience working with one another. A slow and balanced approach where Harvin maybe takes 20 snaps should be likely.
We saw the Hawks dismantle another quality defense at one point in the year only to falter in their next match-up with them. Russell Wilson’s numbers in the first Arizona game look comparable to what he did in that New Orleans win. Wilson was on the move early and often and the play calling worked out well. Not only did the second year QB beat both groups with his legs, but he also got outside the pocket and wreaked havoc on the secondary with his arm on deep post and corner opportunities in each game.
The second Arizona game, a loss for the Seahawks which surprisingly came A) at home and B) in the wake of four Carson Palmer INT’s, was a testimony to how pedestrian their offense can look at times. The Cardinals were able to consistently stop the run and forced Seattle into third and long often. Seattle finished the game 2-13 on third down.
New Orleans isn’t quite as good defensively as Arizona. The Cardinals feature a mammoth and physical defensive line with flat out superstars. But New Orleans has mixed up schemes and done a great job in bringing pressure from different angles under Rob Ryan. Wilson plays like a veteran, but he is also capable of being blanketed well should the right game plan develop.
More importantly than anything else, however, will be the Saints ability to stop the run. FootballOutsiders revealed that this was the 20th best run defense in the league during the year, but they have had their moments.
Just this past week they were able to neutralize a completely different style in Philadelphia. Shady McCoy was limited to just 77 yards on 21 carries and never found his rhythm. While Nick Foles was efficient and turnover free again, he was unable to sustain drives early on in the game and failed to put up enough points at the end to win outright.
Wilson abused New Orleans with his legs in the opener, but Lynch was far less effective. The Saints do feature a reasonably strong defensive front despite their weak ranking against the run. Brodrick Bunkley and John Jenkins are different players but both skilled. Cameron Jordan is not a prototypical 3-4 defensive end, but he has been used in manners that elevate his effectiveness.
Ultimately, the ‘Hawks deserve to be a sizable favorite in this game. They dominated the first game and have proven themselves to have as much HFA as any group in the NFL.
But New Orleans has a certain look and feel to them that is also intriguing. They have been dubbed a weak road team for quite some time, and the regular season added further evidence of that.
There is something to be said about the numerous road battles they have been involved in, though. This regular season alone they lost several games, but played pretty well down in Carolina in week 16. They have also played in road playoff games the last several years against San Francisco and Seattle, and just won one a week ago.
The Saints might not have enough to win this game, but this spread is a bit excessive right now. This is a veteran group capable of playing well in this spot. They have the savvy and willpower to hang around, but turnovers could well determine it.
Seattle is the real deal and could well be on their way to the Super Bowl, but this number should probably be more in line with 6.5/7 as opposed to 8/9.
Saints +8.5
