In what could be a huge determinant in who will eventually play for the Big 12 championship, Mike Gundy leads his Cowboys into Austin for a date with the Longhorns and Mack Brown. Texas was able to beat the Cowboys in Stillwater early on last season, and so this is also a revenge game of sorts for Oklahoma State.

Much has changed since the 41-36 Texas victory back on September 29, 2012. David Ash and J.W. Walsh are no longer quarterbacking these teams. Joseph Randle is now getting carries for a new group of “Cowboys” in Dallas, and the OSU defense has improved considerably in the last 14 months.

The Cowboys defense in the run department has been particularly important. They rank inside the top 20 of most pertinent categories here, and they have utilized an aggressive front to make opponents more one dimensional. They grade out at 46 nationally against the pass, but some of that is a bit misleading given numerous games in which they have built large leads and opted to play prevent defense in order to close the game out through defensive time management.

Oklahoma State enters this game a road favorite of a full field goal, a testimony to their overall perception as a better program than the Longhorns at this point in time. Speaking of Texas, there is much to be discussed here.

Just a month ago, following a one point victory over the Cyclones of Iowa State, people were calling for Mack Brown’s resignation without hesitation. Texas looked lost and downright awful on the defensive side of the ball and incompetent as a group in total, a potential reflection on their leader.

Fast forward to now and both Manny Diaz and David Ash are out of the picture. The defense looks considerably better for the most part, although some of that has to do with the opponents on their schedule.

Their most impressive win came on a neutral field against an Oklahoma offense that has proven to be quite ordinary in the weeks that followed. Still, this team is getting hot at the right time, and they are doing it with a resurgent run game that has provided balance for new quarterback Case McCoy.

The one-two punch of Johnathan Gray and Malcolm Brown has been tough for opponents to handle. The two backs have been able to exploit defenses consistently over the course of their win streak. Many “analysts” expect that to potentially continue this weekend, but I just don’t see it happening.

For one, Gray is done for the year with an Achilles injury. While Brown is more of the workhorse anyway, Gray was an incredible change of pace attribute. His mere presence alone was a major issue and point of emphasis for defenses on any given play as a result of his open field speed and ability to take it the distance.

Not only is the Cowboys defense built to stop the run here, but they understand the offense in total that Texas brings to the table. After all, they basically created it during the Dana Holgorsen era.

Texas relies on short passing and a ton of bubble screens mixed with crossing patterns. It has worked well against outmanned defenses when they have also boasted a beyond serviceable ground game aimed at keeping the defense off balance.

But the Cowboys know how to play this sort of scheme. They saw a variation of it against Texas Tech and basically shut them down for much of a first half that saw OSU extend their lead to 28-3 at one point.

Moreover, the Cowboys offense is well suited to break down this Texas defense. For all the accolades regarding improvement that we have seen thrown Texas’ way, they still rank outside the top 80 against the run, and that should come into play here.

Desmond Roland just became a starter three weeks ago. While his numbers haven’t been great in the two most recent games he’s played, he still leads the Big 12 in rushing during that span. He is a physical back at 6’2, 210 pounds. He doesn’t come down easily, and that could be exasperated by a defense that has had issues tackling the ball carrier on more than one occasion here.

Oklahoma State’s defense is number 9 nationally in yards per play allowed. The loss of Gray could spell additional limitation on both first down and in the screen game, a factor that could create problems as the Longhorns get into third down opportunities. OSU has held its last three opponents to 0-29 on third down and ranks sixth overall nationally in that category.

While taking the home dog might be a nice alternative in the minds of many, I don’t see it here. Gray’s loss will hamper Texas and I think we’ll be reminded of the issues that plagued them early on.

At the same time, there is a reason this number is quite small at only 3. Clint Chelf is completing only 51% of his passes and has been utilized more and more in the run department against certain opponents recently. Covering the number here will require consistently reliable red zone offense, and it’s tough to really actualized how good the Cowboys offense will be in this spot. They haven’t looked spectacular on the road when playing difficult competition, and that will be the case here.