The NFL season lingers on into its latter stages this weekend, and one game on the slate that already interests me is Tampa Bay heading to St. Louis.
These two squared off against two of the top teams in the conference a week ago with very different results. Tampa was pounded by the score of 33-14 by a 49ers team that appears to be clicking on all cylinders with the playoffs around the corner. The Rams blasted the NFC South leading Saints in a game that was never close. They were seven point underdogs in that contest.
Jeff Fischer’s team now rolls into this one as 5.5 point favorites and are getting a ton of public backing. Kellen Clemens looked quite impressive against the Rams, and he will attempt to continue that stellar play.
I like Tampa here for a few important reasons. For starters, Jeff Fischer has performed well with this team as an underdog. But they haven’t been great in the favorite role and they have to go into this one coming off a huge win in which they expended a ton of energy and threw the kitchen sink at their opponent. They are also laying probably too many points here as I think this spread should be about 4.5
But, even more concerning for the home team here, is some of the match-ups which could plague them. The Saints did not look themselves last week, with Drew Brees throwing two critically brutal interceptions early in the game to set the Rams up with points. New Orleans also looked overly dependent on the ground game both early on and when in first and goal opportunities later in the game. They did not spread the Rams out as much as they probably should have, and it cost them.
While St. Louis appears to have settled in at safety with the T.J. McDonald / Darian Stewart combo, I’m not buying them at this point. They got great pressure up front against New Orleans and were able to use a variety of zone schemes that offered double teams to key Saints targets. Brees was forced to throw underneath to his backs often, and the athletic Ram linebackers handled those assignments with ease.
Tampa comes in as a team committed to the pass. While rookie Mike Glennon has regressed a bit in recent weeks while having played a couple really good defenses in Carolina and S.F., he is still in a good spot here. He has a nice trio of receiving options to go to in Vincent Jackson, Tiquan Underwood and tight end Timothy Wright.
Wright is the most important addition at the tight end spot. The rookie from Rutgers has 45 catches on the year, good for second on the team. He has four touchdowns and nearly 500 yards to boot, which aren’t bad numbers given how little he was expected to do this season. He offers a nice safety valve for Glennon and has been targeted 24 times in the last four games.
Tampa should be able to spread the field a bit here and attack this secondary. There is not a single Ram who can easily match-up with Jackson, and Underwood has been especially effective when playing in dome settings this season.
The Rams could continue their quality play and Fischer will undoubtedly warn them against having a let down here. No matter the outcome, asking Kellen Clemens to cover a spread this size regardless of him playing at home is asking a lot. Given that the public is riding the Rams hard right now according to several service providers, I’d possibly wait and see if this number could inch toward seven. I played the game at six and believe the Bucs provide the correct side here.
Tampa Bay +6
