The Big Five rivalry that is Villanova and Temple will be renewed on the Owls’ campus on Saturday at 4 P.M. Villanova sits at 18-2 and is one of the bigger surprises in the nation right now, while conversely, Fran Dunphy’s squad has had a nightmarish first 20 games.
As was further evidenced in their win over Rutgers on Wednesday, Temple has a simply awful defense. They are one of the worst units on that end in the nation and have to deal with a Villanova offense that currently ranks seventh in efficiency nationally.
Making matters even worse in this match-up for the Owls is that they enjoy playing fast. Villanova doesn’t play all that fast, but they will apply some pressure to the Temple guards. While Will Cummings and Quentin DeCosey haven’t been turnover prone, but they do tend to play fast and take bad shots, and that also plays into the hands of what the Wildcats would prefer.
The Wildcat guards bring tremendous length into this game. Temple’s shot selection intuition will only be magnified against a group like this, but if Temple can convert from deep, an area “‘Nova Nation” has struggled to defend, they could keep this game reasonably close.
Temple doesn’t have to deal with a massive or deep front line in facing Jay Wright’s club, but Daniel Ochefu should have his way with this Temple team. Anthony Lee is a really talented 6’9 junior capable of battling Ochefu inside. But the young Wildcat center does have a considerable amount of length and that will frustrate Lee.
While Temple will struggle in stopping Villanova, I do like them in this game. This is a rivalry game with a spread favoring the road team by a massive margin. Advanced metrics might support the idea that the Wildcats should be favored by double digits, but the familiarity of these programs has to be considered.
Additionally, Villanova is willing to settle for the perimeter look, and that is one of their primary downfalls. Temple can pack it in the paint and pray for a rough day. they’ll give the Wildcats some opportunities and it undoubtedly could backfire given how weak the Owls are on defense.
But I have this spread at Villanova -8.5. The fact that Villanova comes off Georgetown and will play Xavier next also helps Temple in this situation. Given Temple’s struggles, ‘Nova will underestimate them a bit and that helps matters.
Temple has been awful in the second half of many games this season. I don’t want to back them for the full game, as Villanova has better depth and could pull away late. But 6.5 is a nice first half margin and i think the Owls have value.
Temple +6.5 1H
