Stanford played a classic thriller at home against the number one team in America on Wednesday. They fell to Sean Miller’s club by three thanks to some incredible late game defense from the Wildcats.
The Cardinal must now turn around and welcome in another team from the state of Arizona when Herb Sendek and the Sun Devils roll into town. ASU comes off an important road win at Cal, moving to 5-3 in conference play while Stanford sits at 4-4. Clearly, this will be a massive game for both clubs.
While ASU has accelerated up many power rankings in recent weeks thanks to a nice winning streak, their struggles have mostly come against offensive minded groups. They do hold losses against Miami and Arizona, but they also lost to Creighton, Washington and UCLA. All three of those clubs are based primarily on offensive prowess and they were simply able to outscore the Sun Devils.
But Stanford is not built in the same manner. also, Stanford has at times trudged in defending talented guards. Justin Cobbs went for 18 points and five assists against them in a 69-62 win at Stanford back on January 2. A week later they surrendered 21 points to Roberto Nelson in a nine point road loss to the Beavers of OSU.
Both squads rank inside the top 20 in 3P shooting percentage, but the Sun Devils are far more reliant on the three. Stanford’s offense utilizes its interior options more so than does ASU, but Sendek can counter the talented Dwight Powell with 7’2 center Jordan Bachynski. The senior is an excellent shot blocker, but he may struggle in moving out away from the basket and defending away from the goal.
Stanford has another quality big in Stefan Nastic, a 6’11 junior who has a nice mid range game. Nastic shoots a nice percentage from the field and provides the Cardinal with a versatile option inside that could make life difficult for the ASU defense. Should they elect to go with a zone, Nastic can plant himself in the middle of it and be a threat to shoot from spots near the foul line.
Jahii Carson should be able to do some damage in this game. Stanford won’t be able to stop hi given what they have at guard, but they need to contain the other ASU scoring options if they want to win this game and cover the current number of 5.5.
Jermaine Marshall is a really talented transfer who has provided a huge scoring boost that forces the opposition to not focus solely on Carson in the back court. He could have a tough match-up with Anthony Brown, a 6’6 junior guard who has given Johnny Dawkins excellent minutes thus far this season.
Brown has the length and defensive prowess to create problems for Marshall, but overall I like the Sun Devils at this number. Stanford is at a situation disadvantage given the fact they just played an incredible game with Arizona and Additionally, while Stanford is a more defensive club, they do like to play up and down and that ultimately favors the visitor here.
We mentioned that both teams shoot it well from deep, but while ASU is 25th nationally in three point defensive field goal percentage, Stanford is terrible at defending the perimeter look, ranking only 244. ASU could get rolled here if they have a bad shooting day, but to hand them 5.5 points when this number should be more in line with three is simply foolish.
This line moved from 4 to 5.5 and is currently sitting at 6 on some boards. Taking a road dog is difficult, but i do believe ASU can win this game. They are starting to get hot at the right time and have one of the best and most underrated players in the collegiate game in Carson. That should be enough to keep this one close.
ASU +6
