Baylor @ Oklahoma State
The Bears bring their high powered offense into this game with Oklahoma State. The Cowboys currently sit as eight point dogs in their own building after some serious spread fluctuation throughout the week.
A game like this being played in the month of November with a road favorite of this amount initially has me thinking the Cowboys are a really good play here, but there are some matchup considerations to discuss.
The key to OSU pulling this upset is for them to engineer slow and methodical drives that keep Bryce Petty off the field. Tevin Reese is hurt and the Bears are banged up at running back. It didn’t matter against Texas Tech a week ago, but the Cowboys defense is statistically better than the Red Raiders by a mile.
Clint Chelf and his offense have succeeded at times, with recent victories including a better ground attack coming from the quarterback position. Still, they are a bit limited when it comes to the vertical passing game.
They absolutely must run the ball successfully against the Bears here. If they can do that, they have a chance to allow their defense a reasonable opportunity at winning this game.
To actually beat Baylor, it’s going to be imperative that this Cowboy defense puts its imprints all over this game. This is the 22nd ranked run defense in the nation, but only 46th against the pass.
And that might be the most difficult thing to project going into this game. Is this Baylor squad just another Big 12 ten that benefited from an easy schedule through the first two months of the season, or are they a special unit that will stand out in a crowded conference?
The Cowboys looked quite pedestrian in a loss at West Virginia and a near letdown against Kansas State the following week. They have cruised lately but those games have come against iffy competition.
Ultimately, I think OSU has enough to keep this game close. The Baylor defense is very good and has not received its just due. But this game is on the road against a formidable coach who understands how to win big games at home. Win or lose, I believe the points pose a serious benefit here in this scenario.
OSU +8
Boise State @ San Diego State
The Aztecs come into this game red hot and have won several tight games on the road in conference in the last month. This is coming from a unit that has a serious chance at winning the conference with a win here, and is accomplishing this using a roster that includes 16 starters from a year ago.
Boise is extremely overvalued in this spot. They have done little to impress anyone since quarterback Joe Southwick went down a few weeks ago. They are leaning on a good run game (as evidence by 53 carries against Wyoming last week to only 39 passes) right now to get them by, but that won’t be good enough here.
SDSU features one of the best rush defenses in the conference and is ranked in the top 25 nationally. They can force Boise to be one dimensional and that does not benefit them on the road here.
The balance SDSU sports on offense will also help them. Boise has a good defense, but they have been exposed hrough the air in certain match ups. This game could come down to that as well, and I look for a tight game not indicated within the current six point spread.
I bought this up to the full touchdown and expect it to be something like 4.5 by game time.
SDSU +7
BYU @ Notre Dame
The Irish opened as the smallest of favorites for this game and are now sitting as a small underdog as the number went from -1 to +1 on many boards. This move is quite indicative of what sharp berthing minds think of this game.
BYU is battle tested on the road having just played at Wisconsin two weeks ago. This trip to Notre Dame will be a big one for them, and it comes in the wake of Louis Nix going down for the year to an ACL injury.
Navy completely manhandled the Irish at the point of attack earlier in the year and Oklahoma did the same. BYU sports a super ground gam and a defense with supreme athleticism at several positions. Everything about this matchup has to concern Notre Dame fans.
Tommy Rees has proven quite turnover prone in the most critical of times, and BYU has done a decent job in forcing turnovers this season.
BYU holds wins over Texas, Utah State, Georgia tech and Houston, yet they are not being given their due here. I really like BYU to expose them here. The only alarming issue is that Brian Kelly brings his team in here off a bye. At the end of the day, i don’t think the extra preparation time will be enough given the massive injury loss coming in the form of Nix’s absence.
BYU PK
