Towson @ Kansas
This will be another good measuring stick for the Jayhawks. It seems like the majority of their early games outside of the Duke matchup have come with a line of 17.5 or something in that viscidity.
Kansas is both good enough to cover that regularly but also can be limited at times offensively to the extent that they are limited in dependability as a favorite at this number.
The key for the opposition in terms of going in their and covering is guard play and ability to avoid turnovers. The Jayhawks are a good and athletic bunch, but they are still evolving defensively.
The good news for them here is that Towson is awful in regards to turning it over. They did just that in the first half against Temple and saw a reasonable lead build for the visitors.
They got back in the game in an up tempo second half that featured Temple turning it over, and were good in that game on their home floor. That won’t be the case here and their lack of anything close to a bonafide forward will result in transition opportunities for Kansas.
Towson gets a ton of their opportunities on the offensive glass, and that is another strength of Kansas. This game will also be a good spot for the Jayhawks as they have been a bit lackluster at home against competition like Louisiana Monroe and Iona.
The difference is that both of those programs have solid guard play. That makes me think Kansas wins this game by 20 plus, and getting them at 17.5/18 poses value.
Kansas -17.5
Providence vs. Vanderbilt
The Friars get ready to play away from home for the first time against an interesting opponent that has more potential than some may realize.
Providence is 4.5 point favorites for this one. Thats thanks largely in part to them having more pure scoring potential and a guard who can light teams up.
Neither team plays all that fast, but Vandy prefers an ultra slow game. They are slowly becoming a far better offense than they were in 2012. Their performance at Butler, a game where they pushed the to overtime was a testimony to that.
Providence remains a much better rebounding team, however. Ed Cooley and this group are a little more veteran and that will help in a tournament like this, especially given that much of the experience comes at guard with Bryce Cotton leading the attack.
The Friars have very restricted depth and are still working to get Kris Dunn more involved in their attack. Cotton playing point guard for long stretches results in some restriction in his scoring prowess, but he is still lethal.
I don’t trust Vanderbilt in this spot given some of their limitations on the glass and due to the fact that I don’t completely trust their offense. This number seems just, and I like the Commodores enough to avoid fading them in a game that should finally challenge a Providence defense that has yet to face quality competition outside of Boston College.
Oklahoma vs. Seton Hall (at Barclays Center – Brooklyn, NY)
The Sooners are small favorites in what should basically be a rough game for them in New York. Oklahoma hit the road for a big win to kick off their season at Alabama a week ago, and now get another opportunity to defeat a school that is looking to back on their feat after a rough 2012 season.
Injuries plagued Seton Hall more so than anything else a year ago, and they are benefiting from being healthy now. They are 3-1 with their lone loss coming in double overtime at Mercer, a team that is pretty solid.
But Oklahoma and their fast pace will be aided by a lack of adequate point guard play and depth. Sterling Gibbs, a transfer from Texas, has been a godsend for the Pirates early on.
A New Jersey native, he is only a sophomore but is starting to play major minutes and a major role while Tom Maayan has headed to the bench.
What makes Seton Hall interesting in a game like this is the presence of 6’9 Czech born Patrick Auda. He enters this game averaging 14.5 points per game along with 6.3 rebounds. He is a third scoring presence alongside Gibbs and senior Fuquan Edwin.
But Seton Hall’s bench and overall death is still murky given that they lack a true point guard behind Gibbs. Gene Teague is an asset given his size and scoring ability. But he lacks the conditioning and ability to stay out of foul trouble necessary to helping this team more significantly.
But the Hall is deep in general, as Brian Oliver and Brandon Mobley are dependable veterans who do a little bit of everything for this group. Oklahoma has more talent and scoring ability, but they are still a team that is a work in progress having lost some critical pieces.
They are a little thin inside and could struggle in dealing with Seton Hall’s big bodies. It’s just tough to pick a side here. Oklahoma should probably be favored but they don’t appeal enough in what is a road setting that should motivate the Pirates and their fans.
Virginia Tech vs. Michigan State (at Barclays Center- Brooklyn New York)
The Hokies enter this game as 15 point dogs and will likely need every one of those points. They are a very mediocre bunch that doesn’t have great guard play, and its very difficult seeing them manufacture big points in this game.
The Hokies can avoid disaster by not turning the ball over, and that will likely depend on tempo. They were one of the fastest teams in basketball last year and have declined in that category slightly.
I would suggest they play a slow game with Michigan State and dedicate all five bodies to the defensive glass if they want to keep this game reasonable.
The Hokies do have four big bodies who can challenge the Spartans. Jarrell Eddie, C.J. Barksdale, Trevor Thompson and Cadarian Raines give VT a chance to neutralize the Spartans on the boards, especially given their lack of a significant center behind Adreian Payne.
Long Beach State vs. VCU (San Juan)
It’s surprising seeing VCU in this game, but you had better believe that Shaka smart will wake his troops up heading into this one.
The Commonwealth was absolutely dismantled on the glass in their game against FSU. The ‘Noles even turned it over 25 times despite winning the scoring battle 85-67. 5 different Seminoels had at least five rebounds and they played superb defense in a win that did not require them to showcase strong point guard play.
The scariest thing about this VCU team is ultimately how up and down there offense can be. Terrance Shannon and Juvonte Reddic were in foul trouble for the better part of this game and Rob Brandenburg and Trevor Graham were simply incapable of carrying the scoring load against a team with good defensive principles and strong length.
Trevor Graham was 4-13 from the field and 1-5 from downtown. Four bodies off the VCU bench gave Smart at least 19 minutes but it just did not matter.
Thankfully for them here, their opponent is not much of an antagonist compared to FSU. Long Beach got smashed by Michigan in their opener and they have lost in miserable fashion several times to start 2013.
They are 287 in the nation in terms of turnover efficiency and that makes it frightening what could happen with a frustrated Rams team in this one.
I’d project this spread be something around 15.5. Most of their scoring comes from the guard spot and that will also be a problem here. VCU is deeper and more athletic and will have that advantage in their pocket for this one. I’d look to take the Rams should the right number present itself.
Michigan vs. Florida State (San Juan)
The Noles now get to play Michigan. We just saw Michigan lose to what looks like a really good Iowa State team on the road, but they came back and destroyed Long Beach yesterday.
This game is rally going to be a test to the defensive ability of Florida State. We have seen their size and length enable them to beat people by dominating the glass (see the Central Florida game as well), but this matchup tests their length in another way.
The one thing that has to scare you if you are FSU is how effective you will be offensively against Michigan’s defense. The Wolverines are a disciplined team that grades out much better defensively this year than they did last year.
This team goes inside out nowadays. trey Burke is gone, but Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson and Nik Stauskas remain on what is a talented group.
They have quality depth with 6’6 Caris LeVert, Jon Horford, Derrick Walton, Zak Irvin and national championship game hero Spike Albrecht.
Jordan Morgan rounds out what could be the most underrated 9 man rotation in college hoops, and that is important in tournament style games, especially when your opponent is coming off a big win.
I have Michigan as a 7.5 point favorite here and see this game being a defensive struggle wherein Michigan’s superior roster takes over with time.
