Tuesday night’s CBB slate offers us a really good early season matchup between two teams that have high expectations in 2013.
Marcus Smart’s return to Stillwater gives the Cowboys an absolutely loaded bunch. They also add 5’11 PG Stevie Clark as a weapon off the bench who can spell Smart and allow him to not play an absurdly aggressive number of minutes as he did a season ago.
OSU has a host of other weapons on their roster as well. Markel Brown, Le’Bryan Nash and Michael Cobbins can all score with regularity. While their forwards are young, they do have decent size and have been solid on the defensive boards early in the year.
Memphis loses Tarik Black to transfer but added Michael Dixon via the same route. Dixon provides another body to play point behind Joe Jackson, a likely all conference player in the AAC.
Geron Johnson is a bigger scoring weapon in the back court and he starts at shooting guard for Memphis. His presence gives the Tigers a three headed monster in the back court.
They will need all the options they can get back there because Smart is gifted enough to lock down one of these guards with relative ease. At 6’4, he is capable of disrupting shooting and passing angles and that could have a seriously adverse affect on the 6’1 Jackson.
Memphis looks to have a slight advantage on the glass. Shaq Goodwin is a big time rebounder at power forward, and Austin Nichols, while a bit skinner, can also mix it up. Dominic Woodson is a 6’10 freshman who will not command big minutes early in the year, but should play a role in this game.
OSU has employed forward heavy lineups in their first three games. They do have size in a pair of juniors. 7’0 Marek Soucek and 6’10 Gary Gaskins, along with Kamari Murphy provide them options off the bench. Nash is a very good rebounder who can be a matchup nightmare at times given his 6’7, 235 pound frame. Cobbins is a serviceable rebounder at 6’8, while smart and Brown both rebound pretty well for their position.
Memphis and OSU were 65 and 87, respectively, in offensive efficiency a season ago. I look for both to be better in that area this year given the fact they both added guard depth. The Cowboys grade out better defensively and have a tad bit more depth, making this spread of 6.5 a logical number given that the Cowboys have a strong home court.
Ultimately, OSU is a somewhat under the radar team and will be playing in a big spot in front of their home fans. Memphis excels when they are the more athletic group, which they do not happen to be in this game.
The difficult thing to really project is the way these offenses work. OSU likes to move the ball and either get it to their shooters in the corner or find iso opportunities for Nash. Memphis’ offense can struggle at times if they do not have an edge on the offensive boards, and that will likely be the case here. But they also now have three good ball handlers and a plethora of scoring options in what is a loaded back court.
I look for a tough game and a battle that should extend well into the second half. OSU has six players who are currently scoring in double figures and that could make a difference. Additionally, they have the ability to go with a unique lineup that can pose problems for Memphis.
Their starters typically include Smart and four forwards, although Brian Williams is only 6’5. Still, playing with a smaller sort of lineup works against the Tigers in a few important ways.
Firstly, it diminishes the effectiveness of their size. Yes, they have bigger bodies, but they are not the type of team that will get the ball into the low block regularly for post up opportunities. They will instead depend on their guards to initiate the offense here, and that limits the likelihood of Memphis being able to get Nash and Cobbins into foul trouble.
Secondly, the Cowboys will be able to spread out Memphis’ bigs and force them to defend away from the basket. Cobbins, Brown and Nash can all set out and shoot from the perimeter, and Memphis’ bigs are not built to play that style of a game.
The tempo here is another issue to keep an eye on. Both of these teams like to run and get up and down, and that should make for an exciting showcase. While we did allude to Memphis’ increased guard depth, they ranked in the bottom 100 a year ago in terms of turnover efficiency. The addition of Dixon will help, but they still gave it up 21 times in their lone performance this season, a 26 point win last Thursday against Austin Peay.
All of that spells likely trouble for Memphis in this matchup. I have serious questions as to what their rotation will look like early on and do not know if their offense and ability to protect the ball will hold up here. Given the current rankings of these teams, you would think this spread might be closer to four or five, but the fact that Vegas is hanging it above six tells me the Cowboys are the play here.
Oklahoma State -6.5
