Another non-tournament matchup takes place today at 5 PM when VCU visits Belmont. The Rams get their second legitimate road test of the year as they enter this game, the other being a three point win at Virginia back on November 12.
Belmont owns one of the more high profile wins on the season. they knocked off North Carolina on the road on November 17 thanks to 28 points from J.J. Mann and a 56% shooting effort from behind the arc as a team.
Belmont has four players scoring in double figures and ranks 36th in the country in three points attempts taken as a percentage of overall field goal attempts. The Bruins like shooting it from downtown, and while VCU does not fall into a similar category, they are a respectable 111th in three point field goal defense.
Belmont boasts a veteran group that is led by three seniors and a host of additional upperclassmen. they are an emerging power in the mid major ranks and pose a major threat to the Rams today thanks to their ability to stroke it from anywhere. But VCU will put them to the test in two important ways: overall athleticism and pressure defense.
If you have a pulse and have watched college hoops this season or in the past, you know VCU likes to play up tempo. They want to pick up in full court man and use doubles and traps on occasion.
Belmont counters as the 75th ranked team in adjusted pace. They like to get up and down too, evidenced by their battle with UNC which ended with 163 points scored.
But VCU understands how to deal with one dimensional teams. The Bruins have the ability to score from all over, but they are not a drive and finish sort of team. They want to kick the ball out, and that plays into the hands of VCU.
VCU’s losses came against Florida State and Georgetown, two groups that had considerable size advantages over them. Belmont is not without size, as they do some bodies throughout their rotation who can bang down low.
But, ultimately, this Belmont squad is 234 in offensive rebounding and 243 in defensive rebounding. They come in at only 158 in terms of turnover efficiency, and they also have defense that is middle of the pack by most standards.
Belmont has held only two opponents to less than 70 points in their 8 games this season, and that is also concerning here. to beat the Rams you have to get the ball to the basket and generate easy scoring opportunities as their defense tends to break down if they cannot get a turnover. Forcing too many threes can be scary unless you are red hot, and that could be the story of the game here.
While Belmont grades out as a very good squad, it is with good reason that they enter this game a four point favorite in their own building. VCU has numerous matchup advantages and should have a good chance of going in and stealing a win. This should be a tight game regardless of the winner, which makes taking road chalk of four full points a difficult decision.
Ultimately, Belmont lacks the defensive consistency to slow down the Rams at the end of what should be a back and forth sort of grind. I look for a lot of scoring and entertainment, but can’t say its an ideal game to play.
