Bowling Green comes in red hot following a great end to a season which culminated with the MAC title game dethroning of Jordan Lynch and Northern Illinois. Sophomore Matt Johnson was the triggerman in that beat down, and he will look to continue his stellar play at the very same field up in Detroit.
Johnson is a 6’0 sophomore who hails from Harrisburg. Apparently, Pitt was the first school that showed interest in him, but passed him over due to his size. Revenge will likely be on his mind coming into this game, but he will have to play within himself and utilize his key weapons in order to have great success here.
Johnson went to freshman phenom Ronnie Moore early and often against NIU, and I’d expect the same here. Moore didn’t fully come on the scene until late in the year, but his big play ability was apparent. He caught four balls in the MAC championship and was one of six targets used by Johnson in his dissecting of that defense.
While the Johnson/Moore tandem received a ton of hype for that performance, their ability to run it was the key. Travis Green, a very talented sophomore from Carol City, FL, carried 26 times for a 5.1 average and spearheaded a BG rush attack that averaged 4.5 YPC on 40 touches.
Pitt is pretty good against the run thanks to a dominant defensive line led by Aaron Donald. Donald, while not massive in size, is extremely powerful and used his compact frame to rack up big numbers this year en route to taking home a sizable amount of hardware just a few weeks back during various award ceremonies.
But Pitt has struggled against balanced offenses with good speed, as shown by Miami in their last game of the year. Bowling Green has some of that, but lacks the overall depth to wear down a Pitt roster that faced off against nine bowl-bound teams during a rigorous 6-6 regular season.
Bowling Green undoubtedly had an impressive season, finishing the year as hot as can be in the MAC. They rank fifth nationally in points allowed per game and had a string of four straight games from November 5 – November 29 where they allowed a total of 17 points. Still, B.G. didn’t take on the schedule which Pittsburgh had, and both squads are far more even than the current point spread indicates.
Pitt has a nice combination of both run and pass options, but their offensive line has been a mystery. Quarterback Tom Savage has been sacked a total of 41 times which is the most in FBS. Bowling Green has some real quality up front as a defense, but not an explosive enough pass rush to likely take advantage of Pittsburgh’s weaknesses.
The Panthers are currently 5-5.5 point dogs here and that should have some value. Dogs of 3+ points have done reasonably well in bowl games, and these two teams are probably closer to even than anything else. The line opened at six and, despite 68% of spread bets coming in on Bowling Green, it dropped to 4 before working its way back up toward six in the last 24 hours.
While Pitt is not a very explosive group, they should match up well here. They are still a major step up in class for B.G. Additionally, they have the skill up front to contain the rushing attack of Bowling Green, and I’m not sure Johnson is ready to take over against this group in the same fashion he did to MAC opponents.
The Falcons are coming off a massive win and combining that with a three week layover prior to kickoff here. Dave Clawson is now at Wake Forest and Adam Scheier, the special teams guy, is now in charge for the Falcons. He has no previous head coaching experience and, as we saw both last year and through several games in this bowl season, that is concerning.
Pitt may very well lose this game to a team that could continue its hot streak, but the current spread being tossed around is simply too aggressive.
Pitt +6 and ML +180
