Michigan State just played in a fantastic Saturday night showcase battle with in-state rival Michigan and now must come off that game in order to do battle with the Hawkeyes of Iowa.
MSU fell by five at home a few days back. That combined with the extensive injury issues they are dealing with make this another difficult spot for them as they continue to battle for the conference crown.
During the course of last season, the Hawkeyes lost a tight game at home early on in conference play to these Spartans and followed it up with a three point loss in Chicago during the Big Ten tournament.
Revenge will be a definite factor here. Iowa led late into that second match-up but allowed MSU to go on a 22-9 run to close things out.
More importantly for this game will be the massive variation in depth between these squads. MSU is battling through injuries to both Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson right now. Dawson is definitely out and Payne is most likely going to sit.
It was visibly apparent on Saturday that guards Gary Harris and Keith Appling were winded toward the middle of the second half. Harris played 38 minutes in the loss and has played 30+ minutes in each game since December 31.
Appling has dealt with similar playing time. While these guys are college kids who have young and fresh legs, there is definitely something to be said about a weary ball club that is dealing with the loss of two incredibly important rotation pieces.
MSU isa very good team that I expect to seriously contend for a Final Four spot, but right now they are wounded. They have received sporadic bench production in recent weeks and are hitting a tough stretch to their schedule.
The Hawkeyes of Iowa are conversely extremely deep. They are 14th nationally in bench minutes and fifth in offensive efficiency. They have a lengthy stable of forwards to attack the Spartans with.
Iowa gets to the line quite often as they consistently look to take the ball to the basket. They are one of the 50 best 3P shooting clubs, but they in no way rely on the three as they rank 305 nationally in three point dependency.
I expect Iowa to attack the basket here and force the thing interior of MSU to have to defend that area for a full 40 minutes. That will be tough to do, and over the course of time it is inevitable that Iowa simply wears them down.
Look for MSU to bounce back from some tough times, but for the moment I expect them to struggle. They are quality fade material right now, and with Iowa only favored by six, i see a tremendous amount of value on the home team here. Iowa is looking for a statement game and this would be the ideal spot for it to come in.
Iowa -6
