The top two seeds in the AFC will meet this Sunday in the Conference Championships. The No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) host the No. 2 New England Patriots (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS), kicking off at 6:40 PM ET on CBS; Kansas City are holding steady as 3-point favorites, with the total falling from 57.5 to 55.5 at press time.

Weather may be playing a role with that over/under. Sunday’s forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for mostly cloudy skies at kick-off, with temperatures in the low 20s – although some reports have the mercury falling to single digits. However, the Patriots played in cold conditions last week in Foxboro, and they crushed the Los Angeles Chargers 41-28 (over 48) as 4-point home favorites.

The Chiefs weren’t thrown off by last week’s wintry weather at Arrowhead. They had little trouble putting away the Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) 31-13 in the Divisional Round; the Colts couldn’t gain enough traction to go over the 55-point total for that matchup. Conditions were much better in Week 6 when New England beat the Chiefs (+3.5) 43-40 in a Sunday nighter at Gillette Stadium, easily going over 59.5 points.