The Wolverines bring their explosive offense into this one while sitting atop the Big Ten standings at 7-0. Their win in East Lansing looks even better given how the Spartans performed on the road at Iowa on Tuesday.
Nik Stauskas is playing at an extremely high level and the rest of this team is following suit. Stauskas is strong with the ball and has been in attack mode far more often now than a year ago.
The explosive shooting guard went to the free throw line just 87 times in 2013. Thus far this year he has already shot 110 free throws and is converting at an 80% clip. Michigan as a team doesn’t get to the line a ton, but it doesn’t matter when you shoot it from deep the way they do.
Thursday night’s match-up with Purdue will be an interesting opportunity for them to show they can stay focused. John Beilein’s team has had great success in the underdog role in recent weeks, winning twice as an outright dog on the road. But this game with the Boilermakers will feature them as a 12 point home favorite, and it will be intriguing to see how they respond.
Purdue has been a complete mystery to gage this year. They have a good looking front line centered around seven footer A.J. Hammonds and also feature athletic guards who can push the ball.
They are not turnover proved by any measurement, but they have struggled as a team to shoot it consistently. At 3-4 in Big Ten play, this game is monumental for them and could go a long way toward them getting back into the thick of the conference race.
Wisconsin had their way with this team back on Saturday. They scored 72 points and got to the free throw line a whopping 33 times. Purdue has struggled to negate ball penetration and teams like Penn State and Minnesota have taken advantage thanks to aggressive guard action.
Michigan would appear to be a prime candidate to do similar things here. But this might be a manageable match-up for the Boilers. Purdue actually has a slight edge at point guard and they also have more than a few bodies to throw at Stauskas.
They also have a rugged frontline that should be able to take advantage of Michigan’s question marks in that area. The Wolverines’ interior pieces have performed well since the loss of Mitch McGary, but their primary responsibilities have revolved around defending and cleaning up the defensive boards.
They have not dealt with a physical match-up such as Hammonds and the Boilers bring great depth into this one. While the Wolverines are heavily reliant on the three ball, Purdue defends that pretty well (56th nationally) and they will gladly allow the Wolverines to penetrate here as they might struggle to finish against Hammonds and the rest of this interior.
Moreover, this is a difficult spot for Michigan. They do get a nice break following the the rivalry game with MSU, but this could be a classic letdown scenario. Some advanced metric systems indicate the Wolverines warrant a bigger number than 12, but Vegas likely understands the situational aspects of this game.
Purdue is 3-2 ATS when playing a road game off a home loss ATS this season. Michigan has won four in a row against the number, but they have also lost their last three ATS following the Michigan State game dating back to last season.
Purdue +12
